Simulated Climate Change Impacts on Corn and Soybean Yields in Buchanan County, Iowa

Edward Osei, Syed H. Jafri, Ali Saleh, Philip Gassman and Oscar Gallego
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Syed H. Jafri: Department of Accounting, Finance, and Economics, Tarleton State University, Stephenville, TX 76402, USA
Ali Saleh: Texas Institute for Applied Environmental Research, Tarleton State University, Stephenville, TX 76402, USA
Oscar Gallego: Texas Institute for Applied Environmental Research, Tarleton State University, Stephenville, TX 76402, USA

Agriculture, 2023, vol. 13, issue 2, 1-21

Abstract: Projections of climate patterns through the end of the 21st century indicate varying impacts across the U.S. However, a common thread of these projections calls for increasing atmospheric temperatures in every region, some more pronounced than others. The significance of these projections for corn and soybean production cannot be overestimated. This study contributes to our understanding of climate change impacts on production and farm revenues by projecting their impacts on corn and soybean yields in Buchanan County, Iowa, a county in the center of the Corn Belt. Projections indicate that as atmospheric temperatures rise and precipitation levels vary markedly, the result is a significant decline in corn and soybean yields, the latter to a lesser extent, as compared to long-term yield trends. Depending upon the climate change scenario that will materialize, corn yields are projected to decline by up to 29%, while soybean yields are projected to decline by up to 24% from their normal upward trends by the year 2100. Due to the long-term upward trends in yields, corn and soybean yields will increase in absolute terms by the end of the century. Depending upon the climate change scenario, actual corn and soybean yields will increase by 30 to 57% and 30 to 66%, respectively, by the end of the 21st century, significantly less than they would have in the absence of these climate projections.

Keywords: climate change; crop yields; corn; soybeans; PRISM; RCP; APEX (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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