Modelling the Geographical Distribution Pattern of Apple Trees on the Loess Plateau, China

Wei Xu, Yuqi Miao, Shuaimeng Zhu, Jimin Cheng and Jingwei Jin ()
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Wei Xu: School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Jiangsu University of Science and Technology, Zhenjiang 212000, China
Yuqi Miao: College of Grassland Agriculture, Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University, Xianyang 712100, China
Shuaimeng Zhu: School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454000, China
Jimin Cheng: Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Xianyang 712100, China
Jingwei Jin: Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University, Xianyang 712100, China

Agriculture, 2023, vol. 13, issue 2, 1-14

Abstract: The Loess Plateau, known for its fragile ecosystems, is one of the traditional apple-producing regions in China. Although some management measures are needed to enhance sustainable agriculture in response to the rising pressure of climate change, the geographic distribution of apple trees considering multiple variables has not been considered. In this study, we used three software (the maximum entropy model, IDRISI, and ArcGIS) to simulate the potential distribution of suitable habitats and range shifts of apple trees in the near present and near future (i.e., the 2030s and the 2050s) under two climate scenarios (the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)1-26 and SSP5-85), while taking a variety of environmental factors into account (e.g., temperature, precipitation, and terrain). After optimization, the class unsuitable habitat (CUH) changed the potential distribution pattern of apple trees on the Loess Plateau. Currently, the areas of lowly suitable habitat (LSH), moderately suitable habitat (MSH), highly suitable habitat (HSH), and CUH were 7.66 × 10 4 , 2.80 × 10 4 , 0.23 × 10 4 , and 18.05 × 10 4 km 2 , respectively. Compared to the centroid estimated under the climate of 1970–2000, the suitability range of apple trees was displaced to the northwest in both the 2030s and the 2050s in SSP5-85 (i.e., 63.88~81.30 km), causing a larger displacement in distance than SSP1-26 (i.e., 40.05~50.32 km). This study demonstrates the possible changes in the spatial distribution of apple trees on the Loess Plateau in the near future and may provide a strong basis for future policy making.

Keywords: suitable habitat; climate scenario; range shift; ArcGIS; MaxEnt; apple trees (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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