Agricultural Land Use Changes as a Driving Force of Soil Erosion in the Velika Morava River Basin, Serbia

Tanja Srejić (), Sanja Manojlović, Mikica Sibinović, Branislav Bajat, Ivan Novković, Marko V. Milošević, Ivana Carević, Mirjana Todosijević and Marko G. Sedlak
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Tanja Srejić: Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Sanja Manojlović: Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Mikica Sibinović: Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Branislav Bajat: Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Ivan Novković: Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Marko V. Milošević: Geographical Institute “Jovan Cvijić” of the Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Ivana Carević: Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Mirjana Todosijević: Faculty of Forestry, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Marko G. Sedlak: Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia

Agriculture, 2023, vol. 13, issue 4, 1-27

Abstract: The erosion potential model was applied to estimate the soil erosion status of rural settlements during the years 1971 and 2011. We used univariate and bivariate local Moran’s I indices to detect and visualize the spatial clustering of settlements with respect to changes in erosion intensity and agricultural land use, as well as their mutual spatial correlation. The study area was differentiated into four statistically significant clusters using the calculated bivariate local Moran’s I indices. The statistical analysis examined the two largest clusters, i.e., the high–high and low–low clusters, and the results of the research indicate that the first four principal components explained 70.50% and 73.47% of the total variance, respectively. In the high–high cluster, the low rates of erosion reduction (average Index Z = 98) in the most significant types of rural settlements were determined according to demographic indicators (i.e., the higher population vitality and population density, the smaller share of the old population and the lower average age of the population) and the large proportion of arable land and Neogene sediments. In the low–low cluster, high erosion reduction rates were detected (average index Z = 64). In this cluster, the more statistically significant influence of natural conditions in combination with demographic–agrarian processes (i.e., the larger share of the old population, the higher average age of the population, the lower vitality index and deagrarization) were decisive factors in changing erosion intensity.

Keywords: soil erosion intensity; deagrarization; univariate and bivariate local Moran’s I; principal component analysis; Serbia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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