A Multistep Interval Prediction Method Combining Environmental Variables and Attention Mechanism for Egg Production Rate

Hang Yin (), Zeyu Wu, Jun-Chao Wu, Yalin Chen, Mingxuan Chen, Shixuan Luo, Lijun Gao and Shahbaz Gul Hassan ()
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Hang Yin: College of Big Data and Internet, Shenzhen Technology University, Shenzhen 518118, China
Zeyu Wu: College of Information Science and Technology, Zhongkai University of Agriculture and Engineering, Guangzhou 510225, China
Jun-Chao Wu: Institute of Collaborative Innovation, University of Macau, Macao 999078, China
Yalin Chen: College of Information Science and Technology, Zhongkai University of Agriculture and Engineering, Guangzhou 510225, China
Mingxuan Chen: College of Information Science and Technology, Zhongkai University of Agriculture and Engineering, Guangzhou 510225, China
Shixuan Luo: College of Information Science and Technology, Zhongkai University of Agriculture and Engineering, Guangzhou 510225, China
Lijun Gao: College of Computer Science, Shenyang Aerospace University, Shenyang 110136, China
Shahbaz Gul Hassan: College of Information Science and Technology, Zhongkai University of Agriculture and Engineering, Guangzhou 510225, China

Agriculture, 2023, vol. 13, issue 6, 1-23

Abstract: The egg production rate is a crucial metric in animal breeding, subject to biological and environmental influences and exhibits characteristics of small sample sizes and non-linearity. Currently, egg production rate prediction research predominantly focuses on single-step point prediction, lacking multistep and interval prediction exploration. To bridge these gaps, this study proposes a recursive, multistep interval prediction method for egg production rates, integrating environmental variables and attention mechanisms. Initially, this study employed three gradient boosting tree models (XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost) and the recursive feature elimination (RFE) method to select critical environmental variables and reduce data dimensionality. Subsequently, by scaling the time scale of important environmental variables and utilizing the variational modal decomposition improved by the grey wolf optimization (GWO-VMD) method for time-series decomposition, the volume of important environmental variable data is augmented and its complexity is reduced. Applying the long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network to obtain direct multistep predictions on IMFs, the predicted outcomes are averaged daily to yield the environmental variables for the upcoming two days. Finally, a multistep interval prediction model based on Seq2seq-Attention and Gaussian distribution is proposed in this study, and parameter optimization is carried out using the multi-objective grey wolf optimization algorithm (MOGWO). By inputting the historical egg production rate data and environmental variables into the proposed model, it is possible to achieve multistep point and interval prediction of egg production rates. This method was applied to analyze a dataset of egg production rates of waterfowl. The study demonstrated the feasibility of the recursive multistep prediction approach combined with environmental variables and guides egg production estimation and environmental regulation in animal husbandry.

Keywords: egg production rate; multistep point prediction; interval prediction; environmental variables selection; GWO-VMD decomposition; Seq2seq-Attention; MOGWO optimize parameter (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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