Prediction of Potential Suitability Areas for Ephedra sinica in the Five Northwestern Provinces of China Under Climate Change

Yibo Xu, Xiaohuang Liu, Lianrong Zhao (), Jiufen Liu, Xiaofeng Zhao, Hongyu Li, Chao Wang, Honghui Zhao, Ran Wang, Xinping Luo and Liyuan Xing
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Yibo Xu: Key Laboratory of Coupling Process and Effect of Natural Resources Elements, Beijing 100055, China
Xiaohuang Liu: Key Laboratory of Coupling Process and Effect of Natural Resources Elements, Beijing 100055, China
Lianrong Zhao: School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China
Jiufen Liu: Key Laboratory of Coupling Process and Effect of Natural Resources Elements, Beijing 100055, China
Xiaofeng Zhao: Key Laboratory of Coupling Process and Effect of Natural Resources Elements, Beijing 100055, China
Hongyu Li: Key Laboratory of Coupling Process and Effect of Natural Resources Elements, Beijing 100055, China
Chao Wang: Integrated Natural Resources Survey Center, China Geological Survey, Beijing 100055, China
Honghui Zhao: Integrated Natural Resources Survey Center, China Geological Survey, Beijing 100055, China
Ran Wang: Key Laboratory of Coupling Process and Effect of Natural Resources Elements, Beijing 100055, China
Xinping Luo: Key Laboratory of Coupling Process and Effect of Natural Resources Elements, Beijing 100055, China
Liyuan Xing: Key Laboratory of Coupling Process and Effect of Natural Resources Elements, Beijing 100055, China

Agriculture, 2024, vol. 14, issue 10, 1-18

Abstract: Ephedra sinica ( E. sinica ) holds significant economic and medicinal importance and is predominantly found in arid areas. Due to the limitations of environmental variables, growth habits, and human activities, the production and suitability areas of E. sinica have significantly decreased, especially in the five northwestern provinces of China. In this study, 212 distribution points of E. sinica and 40 environmental variables were obtained to project the habitat suitability of E. sinica under different emission scenarios in the future. It identified precipitation in the wettest month, monthly mean of the diurnal temperature difference, and solar radiation intensity in April and July as the primary environmental factors affecting the suitability of E. sinica in the region. The areas of high, medium, and low suitability in the region cover 103,000 km 2 , 376,500 km 2 , and 486,800 km 2 . Under future scenarios, the suitability areas from 2021 to 2100 will decrease by 20%, with high suitability areas decreasing by 65% to 85% particularly. With comprehensive environmental variables, the suitability areas of E. sinica from 2021 to 2100 are projected, filling the gap in the projection of E. sinica suitability areas in the five northwestern provinces of China over long time period. The suitability areas show a significant decreasing trend. This research provides valuable insights into the suitability areas and crucial environmental factors, offering theoretical support for future protection and management efforts for E. sinica .

Keywords: Ephedra sinica; maximum entropy model; environmental variables; suitability areas prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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