Prediction of the Potentially Suitable Areas of Sesame in China Under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxEnt Model

Guoqiang Li, Xue Wang, Jie Zhang, Feng Hu, Hecang Zang, Tongmei Gao, Youjun Li () and Ming Huang ()
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Guoqiang Li: Institute of Agricultural Information Technology, Henan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Zhengzhou 450008, China
Xue Wang: Institute of Agricultural Information Technology, Henan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Zhengzhou 450008, China
Jie Zhang: Institute of Agricultural Information Technology, Henan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Zhengzhou 450008, China
Feng Hu: Institute of Agricultural Information Technology, Henan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Zhengzhou 450008, China
Hecang Zang: Institute of Agricultural Information Technology, Henan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Zhengzhou 450008, China
Tongmei Gao: Henan Sesame Research Center, Henan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Zhengzhou 450008, China
Youjun Li: College of Agriculture, Henan University of Science and Technology, Luoyang 471023, China
Ming Huang: College of Agriculture, Henan University of Science and Technology, Luoyang 471023, China

Agriculture, 2024, vol. 14, issue 11, 1-17

Abstract: Sesame ( Sesamum indicum L, flora of China) is an essential oil crop in China, but its growth and development are affected by climate change. To cope with the impacts of climate change on sesame cultivation, we used the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model to analyze the bioclimatic variables of climate suitability of sesame in China and predicted the suitable area and trend of sesame in China under current and future climate scenarios. The results showed that the MaxEnt model prediction was excellent. The most crucial bioclimatic variable influencing the distribution of sesame was max temperature in the warmest month, followed by annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, mean diurnal range, and precipitation of the driest month. Under the current climate scenario, the suitable areas of sesame were widely distributed in China, from south (Hainan) to north (Heilongjiang) and from east (Yellow Sea) to west (Tibet). The area of highly suitable areas was 64.51 × 10 4 km 2 , accounting for 6.69% of the total land area in China, and was primarily located in mainly located in southern central Henan, eastern central Hubei, northern central Anhui, northern central Jiangxi, and eastern central Hunan. The area of moderately suitable areas and lowly suitable areas accounted for 17.45% and 25.82%, respectively. Compared with the current climate scenario, the area of highly and lowly suitable areas under future climate scenarios increased by 0.10%–11.48% and 0.08%–8.67%, while the area of moderately suitable areas decreased by 0.31%–23.03%. In addition, the increased highly suitable areas were mainly distributed in northern Henan. The decreased moderately suitable areas were mainly distributed in Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning. This work is practically significant for optimizing the regional layout of sesame cultivation in response to future climate conditions.

Keywords: sesame ( Sesamum indicum L); climate change; climatic suitability; maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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