Simulation of Suitable Distribution Areas of Magnolia officinalis in China Based on the MaxEnt Model and Analysis of Key Environmental Variables

Tingjiang Gan, Qianqian Qian, Zhiqian Liu and Danping Xu ()
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Tingjiang Gan: School of Urban and Rural Planning and Construction, Mianyang Teachers’ College, Mianyang 621000, China
Qianqian Qian: College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China
Zhiqian Liu: College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China
Danping Xu: College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China

Agriculture, 2024, vol. 14, issue 12, 1-15

Abstract: Magnolia officinalis Rehder & E.H. Wilson is a deciduous tree in the Magnoliaceae family with extensive medicinal uses in China and Japan, being used to treat symptoms such as indigestion, insomnia, and anxiety. In this study, we used the MaxEnt model to (1) simulate the suitable spatial distribution areas of M. officinalis in China in the current and future periods (2050s and 2090s) and, (2) identify the key environmental variables affecting its spatial distributions by comparing the changes in the center of mass of the suitable areas under the current and projected future climate. The research results show that the current distribution range of M. officinalis is mainly between east longitude 102.2° to 122.2° and north latitude 23.7° to 33.9°, and it is located in the subtropical region of China. In the future, only the high-suitability area under scenario SSP1-2.6 and the low-suitability area under scenario SSP5-8.5 decreased in the 2050s, while the area increased under all other conditions. In the 2050s, the high- and medium-suitability areas under the SSP5-8.5 scenario increased the most, by 54.76% and 20.90%, respectively. Most of the key bio-climatic variables affecting the spatial distributions of M. officinalis are related to temperature and precipitation, and soil, terrain, chemical, and human variables that are also key environmental variables affecting the spatial distributions of M. officinalis . Currently, the suitable spatial distribution centroid of M. officinalis is at (111.71° E, 28.52° N), but it will change in the future climate; although, it will still be located in Hunan Province. This study predicts the spatial distribution areas that are favorable for the cultivation of M. officinalis with the intention of offering an objectively informed identification of suitable areas for the current and future development of this tree crop’s industry.

Keywords: Magnolia officinalis; MaxEnt; climate change; environmental variables; suitable habitats (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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