Assessment of Climate Change Effects of Drought Conditions Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool

Christian Tulungen and Soni M. Pradhanang ()
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Christian Tulungen: Department of Geosciences, University of Rhode Island, Kingston, RI 02881, USA
Soni M. Pradhanang: Department of Geosciences, University of Rhode Island, Kingston, RI 02881, USA

Agriculture, 2024, vol. 14, issue 2, 1-20

Abstract: A combination of annual peak water demand due to seasonal population spikes along with small and shallow aquifers has prompted an assessment of the region’s watersheds as operating at a net water deficit. This study uses the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate historical drought conditions in the Chipuxet watershed in Rhode Island, USA. The calibrated and validated model uses the Soil Moisture Deficit Index (SMDI) and Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (ETDI) as well as an Indicators of Hydrological Alteration (IHA) calculation to determine the frequency and severity of historical droughts and to simulate climate change conditions developed through a downscaled climate model selection. The output data for the historical and climate change scenarios were analyzed for drought frequency and severity. Results indicate that water stress will increase in both low-emission (RCP4.5) and high-emission (RCP8.5) scenarios. Additionally, the SMDI and ETDI show that RCP8.5 climate scenarios will have more severe deficits. Finally, IHA data indicate that zero-flow days and low-flow durations increase under all climate scenarios.

Keywords: hydrologic model; SWAT; drought; Soil Moisture Deficit Index (SMDI); Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (ETDI); hydrological indicators (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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