Temporal and Spatial Variation of Agricultural and Pastoral Production in the Eastern Section of the Agro-Pastoral Transitional Zone in Northern China

Yajing Zhang, Ruifang Hao () and Yu Qin
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Yajing Zhang: School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
Ruifang Hao: School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
Yu Qin: Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Agriculture, 2024, vol. 14, issue 6, 1-14

Abstract: The agro-pastoral transitional zone in northern China is an important agricultural and pastoral production base. This study focuses on the eastern section of the agro-pastoral transitional zone in northern China. Combined with spatio-temporal analysis, stepwise regression, and gray relation analysis, we analyzed the average annual growth rate, spatio-temporal changes, and influencing factors of agricultural and pastoral production in the study area during 2000–2020. The results show that, in the past 20 years, the agricultural and pastoral production of the 50 municipal districts and counties has significantly changed, among which the agricultural production of 38 municipal districts and counties has shown an extremely significant increase. Generally, the growth rate of agricultural production is higher than that of pastoral production. Agricultural and pastoral production in the study area is influenced by socio-economic and land use/cover factors, with an average correlation degree of 0.79 and 0.88, respectively. Climate change affects agricultural production in agricultural counties, with a correlation degree of 0.85. The results of this research provide valuable insights into understanding the long-term temporal and spatial changes in agricultural and pastoral production and help to develop sound agriculture and pastoral management practices in the eastern section of the agro-pastoral transitional zone in Northern China.

Keywords: multi-scale; agro-pastoral management; spatio-temporal change; gray relation analysis; land use/cover change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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