Study of the Mechanisms Driving Land Use/Land Cover Change and Water Yield in the Ganjiang River Basin Based on the InVEST-PLUS Model

Yuqiong Fu, Yuqi Guo, Jingyi Lan, Jiayi Pan, Zongyi Chen, Hui Lin and Guihua Liu ()
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Yuqiong Fu: Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research, Ministry of Education, School of Geography & Environment, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China
Yuqi Guo: Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research, Ministry of Education, School of Geography & Environment, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China
Jingyi Lan: Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research, Ministry of Education, School of Geography & Environment, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China
Jiayi Pan: Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research, Ministry of Education, School of Geography & Environment, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China
Zongyi Chen: Hydrology and Water Resources Monitoring Center for Ganjiang River Upstream, Ganzhou 341000, China
Hui Lin: Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research, Ministry of Education, School of Geography & Environment, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China
Guihua Liu: Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research, Ministry of Education, School of Geography & Environment, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China

Agriculture, 2024, vol. 14, issue 8, 1-21

Abstract: Water yield is a critical component of hydrological ecosystem services, influenced by both natural environments and human activities. Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) are particularly pivotal in causing water yield variations at the basin level, particularly for the ecologically fragile Ganjiang River Basin (GRB) in southern Jiangxi province, China. Over the last 33 years, the GRB has undergone substantial LULC changes that have significantly affected its water yield. Initially, this study assessed water yield from 1990 to 2022 using the InVEST model, then predicted future LULC scenarios using the PLUS model, including natural development (ND), cropland protection (CP), ecological protection (EP), and urban development (UD). The Geodetector model was then employed to analyze the influence of various factors on water yield changes. Key findings include the following: (1) Significant landscape changes were observed, including increases in impervious surfaces, cropland, and water areas, accompanied by substantial reductions in forest and other natural lands. The most pronounced decline occurred in forested regions. (2) The total water yield decreased by 0.44 × 10 10 m 3 over the study period, exhibiting fluctuations until 2016 and stabilizing afterward. Water yield was generally higher in the northeast and lower in the southwest, primarily influenced by actual evapotranspiration, LULC, and precipitation. (3) The impact of LULC changes on water yield varied by scenario, with the scenarios ranked from most to least impactful as follows: UD, ND, CP, EP. This variation is mainly due to the different rates of evapotranspiration and infiltration associated with land cover. These insights are crucial for guiding policymakers in developing effective LULC strategies that promote ecological restoration and sustainable water management in the basin.

Keywords: water yield; land use change; ecosystem services; driving mechanisms; InVEST model; PLUS model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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