Effect of Climate Change on Identification of Delayed Chilling Damage of Rice in China’s Cold Region

Lixia Jiang, Junjie Han, Hongtao Cui, Zheng Chu (), Shuling Li, Yining Zhang, Yanghui Ji, Qiujing Wang, Xiufen Li and Ping Wang
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Lixia Jiang: Heilongjiang Province Institute of Meteorological Science, Harbin 150030, China
Junjie Han: Heilongjiang Province Institute of Meteorological Science, Harbin 150030, China
Hongtao Cui: School of Resources and Environment, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China
Zheng Chu: Heilongjiang Province Institute of Meteorological Science, Harbin 150030, China
Shuling Li: Harbin Ecology and Agriculture Meteorological Center, Harbin 150028, China
Yining Zhang: School of Resources and Environment, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China
Yanghui Ji: Heilongjiang Province Institute of Meteorological Science, Harbin 150030, China
Qiujing Wang: Heilongjiang Province Institute of Meteorological Science, Harbin 150030, China
Xiufen Li: Heilongjiang Province Institute of Meteorological Science, Harbin 150030, China
Ping Wang: Heilongjiang Province Institute of Meteorological Science, Harbin 150030, China

Agriculture, 2024, vol. 14, issue 9, 1-16

Abstract: This study analyzed temperature and yield data from 34 meteorological stations in Heilongjiang Province during 1961–2020. Four climate averages ( P 1 , P 2 , P 3 , and P 4 ) were determined based on their respective time distributions (1961–1990, 1971–2000, 1981–2010, and 1991–2020). The national standard temperature anomaly index was used to identify delayed chilling damage in rice cultivation compared to these climate averages. Climate tendency rate analysis, Mann–Kendall detection, and linear regression methods were employed to examine the relationship between temperature anomaly and rice yield from May to September. The results showed that there were noticeable differences in recognizing delayed chilling damage across different climate averages from 1961 to 2020. The average duration of chilling damage under P 1 , P 2 , P 3 , and P 4 was, respectively, estimated as 8.5 years, 13.3 years, 21.4 years, and 30.9 years, with severe cold damage accounting for a significant portion (68.2–76.0%) of the total chilling damage period. The occurrence of severe cold damage increased significantly over time while light and moderate cold damage did not show a clear increasing or decreasing trend. Based on the test results, P 3 was found to be the most suitable climate average for identifying delayed chilling damage in rice cultivation from 1961 to 2020. Moreover, the incidence of chilling damage revealed declining trend over time. There was a high incidence of chilling damage in the 1960s and 1970s, followed by a decrease from the 1980s to the mid 1990s, and finally a low-incidence period after the mid-1990s. Spatially, the western regions experienced greater occurrence of chilling damage than the eastern regions. Additionally, there was a highly significant positive correlation ( p < 0.01) between temperature anomalies from May to September and relative meteorological yield of rice. As temperature anomalies decreased during this period, there was an observed downward trend in relative meteorological yield of rice, indicating that delayed cold injury had a negative impact on rice production.

Keywords: cold region; rice; climate averages; delayed chilling damage; yield (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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