Simulation and Optimization of Double-Season Rice Yield in Jiangxi Province Based on High-Accuracy Surface Modeling–Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator Model

Meiqing Zhu, Yimeng Jiao (), Chenchen Wu, Wenjiao Shi, Hongsheng Huang, Ying Zhang, Xiaomin Zhao, Xi Guo, Yongshou Zhang and Tianxiang Yue ()
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Meiqing Zhu: College of Land Resources and Environment, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China
Yimeng Jiao: School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Henan University of Science and Technology, Luoyang 471023, China
Chenchen Wu: State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Wenjiao Shi: State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Hongsheng Huang: College of Land Resources and Environment, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China
Ying Zhang: Department of meterology, Jiangxi Vocational and Technical College of Information Application, Nanchang 330043, China
Xiaomin Zhao: College of Land Resources and Environment, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China
Xi Guo: College of Land Resources and Environment, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China
Yongshou Zhang: College of Land Resources and Environment, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China
Tianxiang Yue: State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

Agriculture, 2025, vol. 15, issue 10, 1-16

Abstract: The accurate estimation of double-season rice yield is critical for ensuring national food security. To address the limitations of traditional crop models in spatial resolution and accuracy, this study innovatively developed the HASM-APSIM coupled model by integrating High-Accuracy Surface Modeling (HASM) with the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) to simulate the historical yield of double-season rice in Jiangxi Province from 2000 to 2018. The methodological advancements included the following: the localized parameter optimization of APSIM using the Nelder–Mead simplex algorithm and NSGA-II multi-objective genetic algorithm to adapt to regional rice varieties, enhancing model robustness; coarse-resolution yield simulations (10 km grids) driven by meteorological, soil, and management data; and high-resolution refinement (1 km grids) via HASM, which fused APSIM outputs with station-observed yields as optimization constraints, resolving the trade-off between accuracy and spatial granularity. The results showed that the following: (1) Compared to the APSIM model, the HASM-APSIM model demonstrated higher accuracy and reliability in simulating historical yields of double-season rice. For early rice, the R-value increased by 14.67% (0.75→0.86), RMSE decreased by 34.02% (838.50→553.21 kg/hm 2 ), MAE decreased by 31.43% (670.92→460.03 kg/hm 2 ), and MAPE dropped from 11.03% to 7.65%. For late rice, the R-value improved by 27.42% (0.62→0.79), RMSE decreased by 36.75% (959.0→606.58 kg/hm 2 ), MAE reduced by 26.37% (718.05→528.72 kg/hm 2 ), and MAPE declined from 11.05% to 8.08%. (2) Significant spatiotemporal variations in double-season rice yields were observed in Jiangxi Province. Temporally, the simulated yields of early and late rice aligned with statistical yields in terms of numerical distribution and interannual trends, but simulated yields exhibited greater fluctuations. Spatially, high-yield zones for early rice were concentrated in the eastern and central regions, while late rice high-yield areas were predominantly distributed around Poyang Lake. The 1 km resolution outputs enabled the precise identification of yield heterogeneity, supporting targeted agricultural interventions. (3) The growth rate of double-season rice yield is slowing down. To safeguard food security, the study area needs to boost the development of high-yield and high-quality crop varieties and adopt region-specific strategies. The model proposed in this study offers a novel approach for simulating crop yield at the regional scale. The findings provide a scientific basis for agricultural production planning and decision-making in Jiangxi Province and help promote the sustainable development of the double-season rice industry.

Keywords: HASM-APSIM model; double-season rice; yield simulation; Jiangxi province (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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