The Impact of Rural Population Decline on the Economic Efficiency of Agricultural Carbon Emissions: A Case Study of the Contiguous Karst Areas in Yunnan–Guizhou Provinces, China

Weini Chen, Dejun Han (), Yu Zhan and Bo Chen ()
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Weini Chen: College of Public Administration, Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Guiyang 550025, China
Dejun Han: College of Public Administration, Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Guiyang 550025, China
Yu Zhan: Institute of Modern Agricultural Development, Guizhou Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Guiyang 550025, China
Bo Chen: College of Public Administration, Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Guiyang 550025, China

Agriculture, 2025, vol. 15, issue 10, 1-25

Abstract: Amid global climate warming, agricultural low-carbon transition is critical for ecological governance. In China’s ecologically fragile contiguous karst areas of Yunnan–Guizhou, intensifying rural population decline poses unique challenges to emission reduction. This study analyzes population and agricultural production data from 25 cities (prefectures) (2013–2022) to quantify rural population decline rates and agricultural carbon emission efficiency. We map their spatiotemporal evolution patterns, apply spatial autocorrelation models to assess spatial dependencies, and investigate mechanisms through a mediation model integrated with agricultural modernization’s three core systems: industrial, production, and management. Key findings reveal (1) divergent trajectories of carbon emission efficiency across regions with varying population decline types; (2) a global Moran’s I of −0.3519, indicating significant negative spatial correlation between population decline intensity and emission efficiency; and (3) dual impact mechanisms where population decline directly alters emission efficiency and indirectly modulates it through interactions with agricultural systems, with mechanism heterogeneity across decline patterns. To reconcile carbon reduction and agricultural growth, region-specific strategies must align population decline gradients with dynamic adjustments to agricultural systems, ensuring synchronized demographic transition and modernization.

Keywords: karst regions; rural population decline; economic efficiency of agricultural carbon emissions; mediation effect (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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