Analysis of the Interactive Response Relationships Between Agricultural Pollution Reduction and Carbon Emission Mitigation and Agricultural Economic Development: A Case Study of Henan Province, China

Hanghang Fan, Ling Li (), Xingming Li, Yongjie Yu, Yong Wu, Donghao Li, Jianwei Liu and Xiuli Wang
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Hanghang Fan: College of Resources and Environment, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450046, China
Ling Li: College of Resources and Environment, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450046, China
Xingming Li: College of Resources and Environment, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450046, China
Yongjie Yu: College of Resources and Environment, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450046, China
Yong Wu: College of Resources and Environment, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450046, China
Donghao Li: College of Resources and Environment, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450046, China
Jianwei Liu: College of Resources and Environment, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450046, China
Xiuli Wang: College of Resources and Environment, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450046, China

Agriculture, 2025, vol. 15, issue 11, 1-24

Abstract: Ensuring the synergistic advancement of agricultural pollution reduction and carbon emission mitigation, along with sustainable development, is crucial for achieving the ‘dual carbon’ target and modernizing agriculture. To ensure sustainable agricultural development, this study employs a coupling coordination model to explore the synergistic effects of pollution reduction and carbon emission mitigation in Henan Province, considering the agricultural carbon emissions (ACEs), agricultural non-point source pollution (ANP), and the gross value of agricultural output (GVAO) of 18 cities in Henan from 2010 to 2022 as endogenous variables. A panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model is utilized to analyze the interactive responses between agricultural pollution reduction and carbon emission mitigation and agricultural economic development. The results indicate that the degree of synergy between ACE and ANP in Henan Province has shown a trend towards higher values and a diminishing polarization phenomenon between 2010 and 2022, with most regions having degrees of synergy at higher levels. Furthermore, the interactive response relationships between agricultural pollution reduction and carbon emission mitigation and agricultural economic development reveals that the GVAO in Henan Province has a significant positive impact on both ACE and ANP, and that agricultural pollution reduction and carbon emission mitigation are constrained by agricultural economic development, with no significant bidirectional causal relationship observed overall and a lack of positive interaction in the long term. Finally, ACE, ANP, and GVAO in Henan Province exhibit a strong self-reinforcing mechanism, particularly ACE and GVAO, which show a pronounced self-growth trend. Overall, Henan Province should fully utilize the synergistic effects of agricultural pollution reduction and carbon emission mitigation to achieve coordinated progress in agricultural pollution reduction and carbon emission mitigation, as well as green and sustainable development of the agricultural economy.

Keywords: agricultural; pollution reduction; carbon emission mitigation; agricultural economy; PVAR model; synergistic effects (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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