Analysis of Carbon Sequestration Capacity and Economic Losses Under Multiple Scenarios in Major Grain-Producing Regions of China: A Case Study of the Urban Agglomeration the Huaihe River Basin

Junhao Cheng, Wenfeng Hu (), Mengtian Zheng, Xiaolong Jin, Junqiang Yao, Shuangmei Tong and Fei Guo
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Junhao Cheng: Department of Geography, Fuyang Normal University, Fuyang 236037, China
Wenfeng Hu: Department of Geography, Fuyang Normal University, Fuyang 236037, China
Mengtian Zheng: Department of Geography, Fuyang Normal University, Fuyang 236037, China
Xiaolong Jin: Department of Geography, Fuyang Normal University, Fuyang 236037, China
Junqiang Yao: Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
Shuangmei Tong: Department of Geography, Fuyang Normal University, Fuyang 236037, China
Fei Guo: Fuyang Land Consolidation and Rehabilitation Center, Fuyang 236037, China

Agriculture, 2025, vol. 15, issue 12, 1-23

Abstract: The Huaihe River Basin stands as a vital grain-producing base in China. Predicting the dynamic evolution of its carbon storage (CS) is of great theoretical value and practical significance for maintaining regional ecological security, guaranteeing food production capacity, and coping with climate change. This study established a multi-dimensional analysis framework of “scenario simulation–reservoir assessment–value quantification”. Using a sample of 195 cities, the PLUS-InVEST-GIS method was combined to explore the overall CS, spatial differentiation, and value changes in future scenarios. The results indicate that the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, CS kept on declining, with cultivated land and forest land being the dominant carbon pools, accounting for over 86% of the total CS. (2) From a “city–grid–raster” perspective, the spatial pattern of high-value hot spots of CS remained stable, and the overall pattern remained unchanged under multi-scenario simulation, yet the overall carbon sink center of gravity shifted to the southwest. (3) The top five driving factors are elevation, slope, NDVI, GDP per capita, and population density, accounting for 77.2% of the total driving force. (4) The carbon sequestration capacity at the county scale continued to weaken, and the overall capacity presented the following order: 2035 Farmland protection scenario (FPS) > 2035 Natural development scenario (NDS) > 2035 Urban development scenario (UDS). The resulting carbon economic losses were USD 2.28 × 10 8 , 4.57 × 10 8 , and 6.90 × 10 8 , respectively. The research results will provide scientific land use decision-making support for the realization of the “double-carbon” goals in the Huaihe River grain-producing area.

Keywords: carbon storage; terrestrial ecosystem; multi-scenario simulation; economic value (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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