Evaluating Sustainability of Water–Energy–Food–Ecosystems Nexus in Water-Scarce Regions via Coupled Simulation Model

Huanyu Chang, Yong Zhao (), Yongqiang Cao, Guohua He, Qingming Wang, Rong Liu, He Ren, Jiaqi Yao and Wei Li
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Huanyu Chang: Academy of Eco-Civilization Development for Jing-Jin-Ji Megalopolis, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China
Yong Zhao: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), Beijing 100038, China
Yongqiang Cao: Academy of Eco-Civilization Development for Jing-Jin-Ji Megalopolis, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China
Guohua He: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), Beijing 100038, China
Qingming Wang: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), Beijing 100038, China
Rong Liu: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), Beijing 100038, China
He Ren: Academy of Eco-Civilization Development for Jing-Jin-Ji Megalopolis, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China
Jiaqi Yao: Academy of Eco-Civilization Development for Jing-Jin-Ji Megalopolis, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China
Wei Li: General Institute of Water Conservancy Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100120, China

Agriculture, 2025, vol. 15, issue 12, 1-38

Abstract: Complex feedback mechanisms and interdependencies exist among the water–energy–food–ecosystems (WEFE) nexus. In water-scarce regions, fluctuations in the supply or demand of any single subsystem can destabilize the others, with water shortages intensifying conflicts among food production, energy consumption, and ecological sustainability. Balancing the synergies and trade-offs within the WEFE system is therefore essential for achieving sustainable development. This study adopts the natural–social water cycle as the core process and develops a coupled simulation model of the WEFE (CSM-WEFE) system, integrating food production, ecological water replenishment, and energy consumption associated with water supply and use. Based on three performance indices—reliability, coupling coordination degree, and equilibrium—a coordinated sustainable development index (CSD) is constructed to quantify the performance of WEFE system under different scenarios. An integrated evaluation framework combining the CSM-WEFE and the CSD index is then proposed to assess the sustainability of WEFE systems. The framework is applied to the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region, a representative water-scarce area in China. Results reveal that the current balance between water supply and socio-economic demand in the BTH region relies heavily on excessive groundwater extraction and the appropriation of ecological water resources. Pursuing food security goals further exacerbates groundwater overexploitation and ecological degradation, thereby undermining system coordination. In contrast, limiting groundwater use improves ecological conditions but increases regional water scarcity and reduces food self-sufficiency. Even with the full operation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (Middle Route), the region still experiences a 16.4% water shortage. By integrating the CSM-WEFE model with the CSD evaluation approach, the proposed framework not only provides a robust tool for assessing WEFE system sustainability but also offers practical guidance for alleviating water shortages, enhancing food security, and improving ecological health in water-scarce regions.

Keywords: water–energy–food–ecosystems (WEFE); coupled simulation model; coordinated sustainable development; water-scarce region; Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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