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Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Factors of LULC Change and Ecosystem Service Value in Guangdong: A Perspective of Food Security

Bo Wen, Biao Zeng, Yu Dun (), Xiaorui Jin, Yuchuan Zhao, Chao Wu, Xia Tian and Shijun Zhen
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Bo Wen: College of Land Science and Spatial Planning, Hebei GEO University, Shijiazhuang 050031, China
Biao Zeng: College of Land Science and Spatial Planning, Hebei GEO University, Shijiazhuang 050031, China
Yu Dun: Institute of Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Shijiazhuang 050061, China
Xiaorui Jin: The First Geological Brigade of Hebei Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources Exploration, Handan 056000, China
Yuchuan Zhao: Hebei Geological Environment Monitoring Institute, Shijiazhuang 050022, China
Chao Wu: Institute of Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Shijiazhuang 050061, China
Xia Tian: Institute of Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Shijiazhuang 050061, China
Shijun Zhen: Institute of Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Shijiazhuang 050061, China

Agriculture, 2025, vol. 15, issue 14, 1-23

Abstract: Amid global efforts to balance sustainable development and food security, ecosystem service value (ESV), a critical bridge between natural systems and human well-being, has gained increasing importance. This study explores the spatiotemporal dynamics and driving factors of land use changes and ESV from a food security perspective, aiming to inform synergies between ecological protection and food production for regional sustainability. Using Guangdong Province as a case study, we analyze ESV patterns and spatial correlations from 2005 to 2023 based on three-phase land use and socioeconomic datasets. Key findings: I. Forestland and cropland dominate Guangdong’s land use, which is marked by the expansion of construction land and the shrinking of agricultural and forest areas. II. Overall ESV declined slightly: northern ecological zones remained stable, while eastern/western regions saw mild decreases, with cropland loss threatening grain self-sufficiency. III. Irrigation scale, forestry output, and fertilizer use exhibited strong interactive effects on ESV, whereas urban hierarchy influenced ESV independently. IV. ESV showed significant positive spatial autocorrelation, with stable agglomeration patterns across the province. The research provides policy insights for optimizing cropland protection and enhancing coordination between food production spaces and ecosystem services, while offering theoretical support for land use regulation and agricultural resilience in addressing regional food security challenges.

Keywords: food security; land use and land cover change; ecosystem service value; geodetector; spatial autocorrelation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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