A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Drought Conditions Framework in Vast Paddy Cultivation Areas of Thung Kula Ronghai, Thailand

Pariwate Varnakovida, Nathapat Punturasan, Usa Humphries, Anisara Tibkaew and Sornkitja Boonprong ()
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Pariwate Varnakovida: KMUTT Geospatial Engineering and Innovation Center, Faculty of Science, King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi, Bangkok 10140, Thailand
Nathapat Punturasan: School of Engineering and Technology, Department of Information & Communication Technologies, Asian Institute of Technology, Pathum Thani 12120, Thailand
Usa Humphries: Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi, Bangkok 10140, Thailand
Anisara Tibkaew: Independent Researcher, Bangkok 10900, Thailand
Sornkitja Boonprong: Center for Graduate Studies and Special Program Management, Faculty of Social Sciences, Kasetsart University, Bangkok 10900, Thailand

Agriculture, 2025, vol. 15, issue 14, 1-27

Abstract: This study presents an integrated spatiotemporal assessment of drought conditions in the Thung Kula Ronghai region of Northeastern Thailand from 2001 to 2023. Multiple satellite-derived drought indices, including SPI, SPEI, RDI, and AI, together with NDVI anomalies, were used to detect seasonal and long-term drought dynamics affecting rainfed Hom Mali rice production. The results show that dry season droughts now affect up to 17 percent of the region’s agricultural land in some years, while severe drought zones persist across more than 2.5 million hectares over the 20-year period. In the most recent 5 years, approximately 50 percent of cultivated areas experienced moderate to severe drought conditions. The RDI showed the strongest correlation with NDVI anomalies (r = 0.22), indicating its relative value for assessing vegetation response to moisture deficits. The combined index approach delineated high-risk sub-regions, particularly in central Thung Kula Ronghai and lower Surin, where drought frequency and severity have intensified. These findings underscore the region’s increasing exposure to dry-season water stress and highlight the need for site-specific irrigation development and adaptive cropping strategies. The methodological framework demonstrated here provides a practical basis for improving drought monitoring and early warning systems to support the resilience of Thailand’s high-value rice production under changing climate conditions.

Keywords: drought index; NDVI anomaly; satellite remote sensing; Thung Kula Ronghai; agricultural drought (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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