Drought Evolution in the Yangtze and Yellow River Basins and Its Dual Impact on Ecosystem Carbon Sequestration

Yuanhe Yu, Huan Deng, Shupeng Gao and Jinliang Wang ()
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Yuanhe Yu: College of Soil and Water Conservation, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China
Huan Deng: School of Geographical Science and Tourism, Zhaotong University, Zhaotong 657000, China
Shupeng Gao: College of Soil and Water Conservation, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China
Jinliang Wang: Faculty of Geography, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China

Agriculture, 2025, vol. 15, issue 14, 1-27

Abstract: As an extreme event driven by global climate change, drought poses a severe threat to terrestrial ecosystems. The Yangtze River Basin (YZRB) and Yellow River Basin (YRB) are key ecological barriers and economic zones in China, holding strategic importance for exploring the evolution of drought patterns and their ecological impacts. Using meteorological station data and Climatic Research Unit Gridded Time Series (CRU TS) data, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of drought evolution in the YZRB and YRB from 1961 to 2021 using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and run theory. Additionally, this study examined drought effects on ecosystem carbon sequestration (CS) at the city, county, and pixel scales. The results revealed the following: (1) the CRU data effectively captured precipitation (annual r = 0.94) and temperature (annual r = 0.95) trends in both basins, despite significantly underestimating winter temperatures, with the optimal SPEI calculation accuracy found at the monthly scale; (2) both basins experienced frequent autumn–winter droughts, with the YRB facing stronger droughts, including nine events which exceeded 10 months (the longest lasting 25 months), while the mild droughts increased in frequency and extreme intensity; and (3) the drought impacts on CS demonstrated a significant threshold effect, where the intensified drought unexpectedly enhanced CS in western regions, such as the Garzê Autonomous Prefecture in Sichuan Province and Changdu City in the Xizang Autonomous Region, but suppressed CS in the midstream and downstream plains. The CS responded positively under weak drought conditions but declined once the drought intensity surpassed the threshold. This study revealed a nonlinear relationship between drought and CS across climatic zones, thereby providing a scientific foundation for enhancing ecological resilience.

Keywords: standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI); drought characteristics; net primary productivity; ecosystem response; run theory (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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