The Evolution of Global Food Trade Systems and Their Resilience in Response to COVID-19: Performance Across Nations

Zhimeng Zhao, Lili Xu (), Haoyan Ma, Xuesong Zhang and Liping Tang
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Zhimeng Zhao: Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis & Simulation of Hubei Province, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China
Lili Xu: Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis & Simulation of Hubei Province, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China
Haoyan Ma: Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis & Simulation of Hubei Province, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China
Xuesong Zhang: Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis & Simulation of Hubei Province, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China
Liping Tang: Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis & Simulation of Hubei Province, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China

Agriculture, 2025, vol. 15, issue 16, 1-26

Abstract: A resilient food trade system is crucial for global food security. The spatiotemporal changes in the trade of four main cereals (soybean, wheat, rice, and maize) and their responses to COVID-19 may serve as an efficient indicator of system resilience but remain underexplored. Using the United Nations Comtrade dataset and the COVID-19 dataset, this paper analyzed the evolution of the Global Trade Network for Four Cereals (GTN4) over 21 years and assessed their trade responses to COVID-19. The findings are as follows: (1) The GTN4 underwent a significant shift after 2019. Between 2000 and 2019, the network steadily expanded in size and became more interconnected, both overall and within groups of developing and developed countries. However, following 2019, its overall accessibility declined, with the extent of deterioration varying between these two groups. (2) COVID-19 influenced the cereal trade in 44–69% of countries, with developed nations exhibiting greater resilience. (3) Wheat exports from Germany, rice from Italy, and maize from the United States demonstrated the highest resilience, while Spain’s soybean trade played a key role in global imports. This research provides new insights into global food security and pandemic resilience, informing sustainable development at the national, group, and global levels.

Keywords: global food security; complex network model; cereal; developed countries; developing countries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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