Price Integration of the Ukrainian and EU Corn Markets in the Context of the Russian—Ukrainian War

Mariusz Hamulczuk () and Denys Cherevyk
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Mariusz Hamulczuk: Department of International Economics and Agribusiness, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, 02-787 Warszawa, Poland
Denys Cherevyk: Department of International Economics and Agribusiness, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, 02-787 Warszawa, Poland

Agriculture, 2025, vol. 15, issue 16, 1-17

Abstract: Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine has led to profound disruptions in local and global agri-food markets. Since Ukraine is one of the world’s largest maize exporters, the war also contributed to considerable changes in trade reallocation, as well as an increase in the significance of the European Union in Ukrainian exports. This study analyses the effects of the Russian–Ukrainian war on horizontal maize price transmission between Ukraine and the EU countries. The panel autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) was applied to investigate the impact of the war on the price pass-through between those countries. The econometric analysis was performed on a weekly feed maize export price series for Ukraine and 14 selected EU countries. The time frame of research, January 2019 to December 2024, was split into pre-war and war periods. The study indicates that with the outbreak of the war, the long-term relationship between Ukraine and the EU’s maize prices has weakened. At the same time, there was an increase in the short-run maize price transmission between Ukraine and the Eastern EU countries. This proves that in the face of the conflict, market participants in these countries are increasingly guided by the market situation in Ukraine when making economic decisions.

Keywords: market integration; horizontal price transmission; maize prices; war in Ukraine; European Union (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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