Mexican White Corn Spot Price Hedging with US Agricultural Futures Portfolios Using the Surplus Efficient Frontier

Oscar V. De la Torre-Torres, Rodolfo A. López-Torres, María de la Cruz del Río-Rama and José Álvarez-García ()
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Oscar V. De la Torre-Torres: Faculty of Accounting and Management Sciences, Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo (UMSNH), Morelia 58000, Mexico
Rodolfo A. López-Torres: Faculty of Accounting and Management Sciences, Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo (UMSNH), Morelia 58000, Mexico
María de la Cruz del Río-Rama: Business Management and Marketing Department, Faculty of Business Sciences and Tourism, University of Vigo, 32004 Ourense, Spain
José Álvarez-García: Departamento de Economía Financiera y Contabilidad, Instituto Universitario de Investigación para el Desarrollo Territorial Sostenible (INTERRA), Universidad de Extremadura, 10071 Cáceres, Spain

Agriculture, 2025, vol. 15, issue 17, 1-28

Abstract: This paper addresses the lack of hedging effectiveness that yellow corn 1-month futures of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) offer for cross-hedging the price of Mexican white corn. For this purpose, the authors tested 1013 combinations (portfolios) of the ten most traded futures on the CME and the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). The results suggest that using a 51.6741% corn and a 48.3259% wheat portfolio mimics the white corn price with a hedging effectiveness of 0.6180. To test the practical use of such a portfolio, the authors backtested its use from 1 January 2000 to 9 February 2025 as a balancing short position for sale of white corn at t + 1. By using the corn–wheat portfolio, the simulated seller (farmer or intermediary) would have earned MXN 5.7664 per kilo traded. The results in this paper provide the first solution to the Mexican white corn cross-hedging problem with a futures portfolio. This hedge can be used as the balancing (short) position for the strike or minimum buy price that the Mexican Government or a financial institution could offer to farmers and intermediaries to enhance food security.

Keywords: Mexican white corn; non-commodity cross-hedging; agricultural futures; surplus efficient frontier; minimum tracking error; basis risk; CME; NYMEX (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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