Analyzing the Driving Mechanism of Drought Using the Ecological Aridity Index Considering the Evapotranspiration Deficit—A Case Study in Xinjiang, China

Hao Tang, Qiao Li (), Hongfei Tao, Pingan Jiang, Congcang Tang and Xiangzhi Kong
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Hao Tang: College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
Qiao Li: College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
Hongfei Tao: College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
Pingan Jiang: College of Resources and Environment, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
Congcang Tang: College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
Xiangzhi Kong: College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China

Agriculture, 2025, vol. 15, issue 19, 1-26

Abstract: With global warming, the increasing frequency of drought events threatens the stability of ecosystems, so the development of a rational ecological drought monitoring and assessment model is urgently needed. In this study, an evapotranspiration deficit (ED) was added for the first time into the construction of an ecological drought index. Considering atmospheric water deficit (WD), soil moisture (SM) and runoff (RF), both the Copula method and a nonparametric method were used to construct a multivariate comprehensive drought index ( MCDI ) to monitor ecological drought. The MCDI was evaluated using Pearson, actual drought validation, Theil–Sen, Mann–Kendall and ExtraTrees+SHAP methods, in order to assess differences between construction methods, analyze the drivers and sensitivities of ecological drought in Xinjiang, China, and specifically explore the role of ED in ecological drought. The results showed that (1) ED based on the ratio form is more suitable for capturing SM changes; (2) the performance of the composite drought index was improved in all aspects when cumulative effects were considered, and the ecological drought index based on the nonparametric method was superior to the index using the Copula method; (3) soil moisture was identified as the main contributor to ecological drought in Xinjiang, with the strongest synergistic effect occurring between SM and ED; and (4) the sensitivity of ecological drought to soil moisture within the arid regions increased nonlinearly along the decreasing SM gradient. In addition, the sensitivity to all drivers increased over time, with the largest increase observed for RF, followed by SM and then ED. The findings of this paper provide a useful reference for constructing a comprehensive drought index at the global scale, since the nonparametric method requires considerably fewer computational resources compared with the Copula method. In addition, the identified synergistic effect of ED and SM offers a new theoretical basis for ecological drought prevention and management in arid regions.

Keywords: Xinjiang; ecological drought; copula; Gringorten; SHAP (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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