Quantifying the Spatiotemporal Response of Winter Wheat Yield to Climate Change in Henan Province via APSIM Simulations

Donglin Wang, Tielin Sun, Yijie Li, Hanglong Zhang, Zongyang Li, Shaobo Liu, Qinge Dong and Yanbin Li ()
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Donglin Wang: College of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, China
Tielin Sun: College of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, China
Yijie Li: College of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, China
Hanglong Zhang: College of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, China
Zongyang Li: College of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, China
Shaobo Liu: School of Water Resources and Environment Engineering, Nanyang Normal University, Nanyang 473061, China
Qinge Dong: Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Northwest A&F University, Xianyang 712100, China
Yanbin Li: College of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, China

Agriculture, 2025, vol. 15, issue 19, 1-28

Abstract: Global warming poses a growing threat to winter wheat production in Henan Province, a critical region for China’s food security, necessitating a quantitative assessment of climate impacts. This study aimed to quantify the dominant climatic drivers of winter wheat yield and assess its spatiotemporal evolution and future risks under climate change, thereby providing a scientific basis for targeted adaptation strategies. Thus, the APSIM model in combination with the Geodetector method was applied to quantify the spatiotemporal response of winter wheat yield to climate change in Henan Province under historical (1957–2020) and SSP245 scenarios. The study results demonstrated significant trends in climatic factors during the winter wheat growing season: precipitation decreased by an average of 3.09 mm/decade, sunshine hours declined by 36 h/decade, wind speed reduced by 0.447 m/(s·decade), and evaporation decreased by 14.7 mm/decade. In contrast, the accumulated temperature ≥ 0 °C significantly increased by 70.9 °C·d/decade. Geodetector analysis further identified accumulated temperature as the dominant climatic driver (q = 0.548), followed by precipitation (q = 0.340) and sunshine hours (q = 0.261). Yield simulations from 1960 to 2018 indicated that most regions maintained stable or slightly increasing yields (<50 kg·ha −1 ·decade −1 ), though some areas experienced fluctuating declines. Under future scenarios, major production regions in Henan Province (Zhengzhou, Xinxiang, Luoyang) are projected to see substantial yield increases, with growth rates of 147.2–148.9 kg·ha −1 ·decade −1 . Specifically, Xinxiang is expected to achieve yields of 6200 kg·ha −1 . The frequency of climate-induced negative yield years decreased by approximately 35% after 2003, highlighting the role of improved agricultural technologies in enhancing climate resilience. This study clarifies how multiple climatic factors jointly affect winter wheat yield, identifying rising accumulated temperature and water stress as key future constraints. It recommends optimizing varietal selection and cultivation practices according to regional climate patterns to improve policy relevance and local applicability.

Keywords: winter wheat; climate change; APSIM model; spatiotemporal response; Henan province (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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