Evolution of the Global Forage Products Trade Network and Implications for China’s Import Security

Shuxia Zhang, Zihao Wei, Cha Cui () and Mingli Wang ()
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Shuxia Zhang: College of Economics and Management, Hebei Agricultural University, Baoding 071000, China
Zihao Wei: College of Economics and Management, Hebei Agricultural University, Baoding 071000, China
Cha Cui: College of Economics and Management, Hebei Agricultural University, Baoding 071000, China
Mingli Wang: Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China

Agriculture, 2025, vol. 15, issue 19, 1-25

Abstract: Growing global supply chain uncertainties significantly threaten China’s forage import security. The evolving characteristics of the global forage trade network directly impact the stability of China’s supply. This study constructs a directed, weighted trade network based on global forage products trade data (2000–2024). Using complex network analysis methods, it systematically analyzes the network’s topological structure and evolutionary patterns, with a focus on their impact on China’s import security. The study addresses the following questions: What evolutionary patterns does the global forage trade network exhibit in terms of its topological structure? How does the evolution of this network impact the import security of forage products in China, specifically regarding supply chain stability and risk resilience? The research findings indicate the following: (1) From 2000 to 2024, the total volume of global forage products trade increased by 48.17%, primarily driven by forage products excluding alfalfa meal and pellets, which accounted for an average of 82.04% of volume annually. Additionally, the number of participating countries grew by 21.95%. (2) The global forage products trade network follows a power–law distribution, characterized by increasing network density, a clustering coefficient that initially declines and then rises, and a shortening of the average path length. (3) The core structure of the global forage products trade network shows an evolutionary trend of diffusion from core nodes in North America, Oceania, and Asia to multiple core nodes, including those in North America, Oceania, Europe, Africa, and Asia. (4) China’s forage products trade network displays distinct phase characteristics; however, imports face significant risks from high supply chain dependency and exposure to international price fluctuations. Based on these conclusions, it is recommended that China actively expands trade relations with potential product-exporting countries in Africa, encouraging enterprises to “go global.” Additionally, China should establish a three-dimensional supply chain security system, comprising maritime, land, and storage components, to enhance risk resistance and import safety.

Keywords: trade of forage products; trade network; import security; power-law distribution (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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