Global Potential Distribution of Carpomya vesuviana Costa Under Climate Change and Potential Economic Impacts on Chinese Jujube Industries

Jingxuan Ning, Ming Li, Yuhan Qi, Haoxiang Zhao, Xiaoqing Xian, Jianyang Guo, Nianwan Yang, Hongxu Zhou () and Wanxue Liu ()
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Jingxuan Ning: Shandong Engineering Research Center for Environment-Friendly Agricultural Pest Management, Shandong Province Laboratory for Biological Invasions and Ecological Security, China-Australia Cooperative Research Center for Crop Health and Biological Invasions, College of Plant Health & Medicine, Qingdao Agricultural University, Qingdao 266109, China
Ming Li: State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Key Laboratory for Prevention and Control of Invasive Alien Species of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing 100193, China
Yuhan Qi: State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Key Laboratory for Prevention and Control of Invasive Alien Species of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing 100193, China
Haoxiang Zhao: State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Key Laboratory for Prevention and Control of Invasive Alien Species of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing 100193, China
Xiaoqing Xian: State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Key Laboratory for Prevention and Control of Invasive Alien Species of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing 100193, China
Jianyang Guo: State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Key Laboratory for Prevention and Control of Invasive Alien Species of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing 100193, China
Nianwan Yang: State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Key Laboratory for Prevention and Control of Invasive Alien Species of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing 100193, China
Hongxu Zhou: Shandong Engineering Research Center for Environment-Friendly Agricultural Pest Management, Shandong Province Laboratory for Biological Invasions and Ecological Security, China-Australia Cooperative Research Center for Crop Health and Biological Invasions, College of Plant Health & Medicine, Qingdao Agricultural University, Qingdao 266109, China
Wanxue Liu: State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Key Laboratory for Prevention and Control of Invasive Alien Species of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing 100193, China

Agriculture, 2025, vol. 15, issue 19, 1-17

Abstract: Carpomya vesuviana (Diptera: Tephritidae), a significant invasive forestry pest of Zizyphus crops worldwide, has spread globally across jujube-growing regions, causing substantial yield losses and economic damage. In China, it is classified as both an imported and forestry quarantine pest. Existing risk assessments have primarily focused on the potential geographical distributions (PGDs) of C. vesuviana , but its economic impact on host plants is unknown. Therefore, we used an optimised MaxEnt model based on species distribution records and relevant environmental variables to predict the PGDs of C. vesuviana under current and future climate scenarios. Meanwhile, we used the @RISK stochastic model to assess the economic impact of this pest on the Chinese jujube industry under various scenarios. The results showed that the human influence index (HII), mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio8), temperature seasonality (Bio4), and precipitation during the driest month (Bio14) were the significant environmental variables affecting species distribution. Under the current climatic scenario, the total suitable area of C. vesuviana reached 2171.39 × 10 4 km 2 , which is mainly distributed in southern and western Asia, southern Europe, central North America, western Africa, and eastern South America. Potentially suitable habitats will increase and shift to the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere under future climatic scenarios. Under the no-control scenario, C. vesuviana could cause losses of 15,687 million CNY to the jujube industry in China. However, control measures could have saved losses of 5047 million CNY. This study provides a theoretical basis for preventive monitoring and integrated management of C. vesuviana globally and helps reduce its economic impact on the jujube industry in China.

Keywords: Carpomya vesuviana; climate change; MaxEnt model; risk assessment; economic losses (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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