Exploring Spatio-Temporal Variations in Water and Land Resources and Their Driving Mechanism Based on the Coupling Coordination Model: A Case Study in Western Jilin Province, China

Lujuan Zhang, Guzailinuer Aihemaitijiang, Zihao Wan, Mingtang Li, Jiquan Zhang, Feng Zhang () and Chunli Zhao ()
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Lujuan Zhang: College of Resources and Environment, Jilin Agricultural University, Changchun 130118, China
Guzailinuer Aihemaitijiang: College of Resources and Environment, Jilin Agricultural University, Changchun 130118, China
Zihao Wan: College of Resources and Environment, Jilin Agricultural University, Changchun 130118, China
Mingtang Li: College of Resources and Environment, Jilin Agricultural University, Changchun 130118, China
Jiquan Zhang: Institute of Natural Disaster Research, School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China
Feng Zhang: College of Resources and Environment, Jilin Agricultural University, Changchun 130118, China
Chunli Zhao: College of Forestry and Grassland Science, Jilin Agricultural University, Changchun 130118, China

Agriculture, 2025, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-22

Abstract: Water and land resources (WLR) are the most important basic resources for social and economic development. The effective alignment of WLR is crucial for maximizing resource utilization and promoting sustainable regional development. This study focuses on Western Jilin Province (WJP), China, employing the degree of coupling coordination model, spatial autocorrelation, and the center of gravity transfer model to assess and characterize the spatio-temporal differentiation patterns of water and land resource matching from 2006 to 2020. Five indicators—annual average temperature (AAT), urbanization rate (UR), population density (PD), reclamation rate (RR), and water resource utilization rate (WRUR)—were selected as influencing factors. A Tobit model was constructed to elucidate the driving mechanisms behind the evolution of the WLR coupling coordination degree (CCD) in WJP. The results indicate the following: (1) From a temporal perspective, the coupling coordination degree of WLR in WJP has shown a year-on-year increase from 2006 to 2020, transitioning from a moderate imbalance to intermediate coordination, reflecting a trend of continuous improvement. (2) Regarding spatial distribution, the overall center of gravity of water and land resource coupling coordination remained relatively stable between 2006 and 2020; however, the direction of distribution gradually shifted from the northeast to the southwest and then from the northwest to the southeast. (3) The AAT, PD, and RR from 2006 to 2020 were all statistically significant at p < 0.01. Notably, the RR positively influences the CCD of WLR, whereas the AAT and PD exert a negative impact. In contrast, the UR and WRUR do not significantly affect the CCD of WLR.

Keywords: water and land resources; spatial autocorrelation; coupling coordination degree; driving mechanism (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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