Optimising Long-Range Agricultural Land Use Under Climate Uncertainty

Karin Schiller (), James Montgomery, Marcus Randall, Andrew Lewis and Muhammad Shahinur Alam
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Karin Schiller: Bond Business School, Bond University, Gold Coast, QLD 4229, Australia
James Montgomery: School of Information and Communication Technology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7000, Australia
Marcus Randall: Bond Business School, Bond University, Gold Coast, QLD 4229, Australia
Andrew Lewis: School of Information and Communication Technology, Griffith University, Brisbane, QLD 4222, Australia
Muhammad Shahinur Alam: School of Molecular and Life Science, Curtin University, Perth, WA 6000, Australia

Agriculture, 2025, vol. 15, issue 20, 1-29

Abstract: To address the difficult problem of maintaining profitable and resilient agriculture under a changed climate, long-term prediction and planning are needed. One approach capable of helping with this endeavour is mathematical modelling and optimisation. Using a temporal framework, this paper outlines a spatio-temporal agricultural land use sequencer (STALS) model, where feasible climate-aware annual crop land uses are determined for a real-world case study region, the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area in Australia. The results of this approach identified desirable transitions in land use and changes in the production system. The analysis revealed two differing possibilities of land use: one with a concentrated crop mix, the other more diverse. However, both suggest higher-value crops, such as horticultural species, will maximise regional economic benefit with comparable minimal water usage under climate change. To maintain regional agricultural economic benefit under reduced water availability and increased temperature, a transformation of land use is needed.

Keywords: digital agriculture; land use; water resource management; climate change adaptation; multi-objective optimisation; decision support system (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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