Drivers of Milk Production Decisions on Polish Family Farms: A Classification Tree Approach

Wojciech Sroka, Andrzej Parzonko, Tomasz Wojewodzic, Marta Czekaj, Lidia Luty and Adam Drab ()
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Wojciech Sroka: Department of Economics and Food Economy, University of Agriculture in Krakow, Al. Mickiewicza 21, 31-120 Krakow, Poland
Andrzej Parzonko: Department of Economics and Organization of Enterprises, Faculty of Economics, Institute of Economics and Finance, Warsaw University of Life Science SGGW-Warsaw, 02-787 Warszawa, Poland
Tomasz Wojewodzic: Department of Economics and Food Economy, University of Agriculture in Krakow, Al. Mickiewicza 21, 31-120 Krakow, Poland
Marta Czekaj: Department of Management and Business Economics, University of Agriculture in Krakow, Al. Mickiewicza 21, 31-120 Krakow, Poland
Lidia Luty: Department of Statistics and Social Policy, University of Agriculture in Krakow, Al. Mickiewicza 21, 31-120 Krakow, Poland
Adam Drab: Department of Economics and Food Economy, University of Agriculture in Krakow, Al. Mickiewicza 21, 31-120 Krakow, Poland

Agriculture, 2025, vol. 15, issue 21, 1-29

Abstract: Most Polish commercial dairy farms have expanded their production in recent years through herd increases and milk yield improvements. This study investigates internal and external drivers shaping farmers’ decisions regarding the future scale of milk production on family farms in Poland. The analysis is based on two sources of data. The primary input comes from a survey conducted in 2025 among 549 commercial dairy farms. To situate individual responses within a broader structural context, accounting data from 444 farms that continuously reported to the Polish FADN between 2005 and 2022 were used. Although not central to the analysis, these data illustrate long-term sectoral developments, particularly herd enlargement and resource concentration. The survey demonstrated a diversity of drivers shaping decisions to expand or stabilise milk production in the next five years. Farmers’ individual characteristics play a central role. The farmer’s perceived health and work ability (5-year horizon), as well as the availability of a successor, strongly influence the willingness to expand or maintain milk production levels. Other important factors include tangible resources, organisational capacity, and financial strength, such as herd size, agricultural land area, and investment capacity. This highlights the role of production potential and farm adaptability. External conditions such as land access, lease prices, and the market environment are not decisive by themselves but provide the background against which farmers evaluate their options. The study confirms that no single factor drives changes in dairy farms. What matters most is how farmers configure and align their available resources with external circumstances. The ability to combine human, physical, and financial capital in a coherent and strategic way is essential for shaping production strategies and ensuring the continuity of farm operations.

Keywords: dairy farming; family farms; milk production decisions; Poland; CART model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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