Game of Chains: Unravelling Uncertainty and Trading Behaviour in Horticultural Supply Chains

Marinus van Haaften (), Iulia Lefter, Jessy Lee Kemmers, Olaf van Kooten and Frances Brazier
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Marinus van Haaften: Department Multi-Actor Systems, Technology, Policy and Management, TU-Delft, P.O. Box 5015, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands
Iulia Lefter: Department Multi-Actor Systems, Technology, Policy and Management, TU-Delft, P.O. Box 5015, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands
Jessy Lee Kemmers: Department Multi-Actor Systems, Technology, Policy and Management, TU-Delft, P.O. Box 5015, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands
Olaf van Kooten: Horticulture & Agribusiness, Domain Agri, Food & Life Sciences, Inholland University of Applied Sciences, P.O. Box 3190, 2601 DD Delft, The Netherlands
Frances Brazier: Department Multi-Actor Systems, Technology, Policy and Management, TU-Delft, P.O. Box 5015, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands

Agriculture, 2025, vol. 15, issue 22, 1-26

Abstract: The Dutch horticultural supply chain is characterised by substantial uncertainty resulting from ongoing organisational changes, such as the transformation from an auction-cooperative system to a sales organisation-based structure. This uncertainty causes strategic behaviour among all supply-chain members (including producers), which often disadvantages primary producers. This study investigates how uncertainty shapes trading behaviour and decision-making using Transaction Cost Theory as a theoretical framework. Specifically, it examines the relationship between environmental and behavioural uncertainty, trading behaviour and strategic responses. Employing a multimethod approach involving interviews, simulation sessions and debriefings to collect data, this study integrates a qualitative and quantitative analysis. The findings reveal: (1) how uncertainty influences trader behaviour and strategic decision-making, and demonstrates the need for more effective coordination mechanisms and strategies to reduce opportunism and inefficiencies in horticultural trade, (2) the diversity of strategic responses to uncertainty and (3) the factors that influence uncertainty and their relationship. Thes factors, include the current supply-chain structure that upholds uncertainty and strategic behaviour such as the deliberate exploitation of the absence or lack of information (asymmetric information). By combining methodological triangulation with theoretical insight, this study provides a foundational understanding of strategic behaviour under uncertainty in agri-food supply chains.

Keywords: uncertainty; strategies; trading behaviour; supply-chain structure; gaming simulation; horticulture (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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