Deep Learning Improves Planting Year Estimation of Macadamia Orchards in Australia

Andrew Clark (), James Brinkhoff, Andrew Robson and Craig Shephard
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Andrew Clark: Applied Agricultural Remote Sensing Centre, University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2350, Australia
James Brinkhoff: Applied Agricultural Remote Sensing Centre, University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2350, Australia
Andrew Robson: Applied Agricultural Remote Sensing Centre, University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2350, Australia
Craig Shephard: Applied Agricultural Remote Sensing Centre, University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2350, Australia

Agriculture, 2025, vol. 15, issue 22, 1-27

Abstract: Deep learning reduced macadamia planting year error at a national scale, achieving a pixel-level Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 1.2 years and outperforming a vegetation index threshold baseline (MAE 1.6 years) and tree-based models—Random Forest (RF; MAE 3.02 years) and Gradient Boosted Trees (GBT; MAE 2.9 years). Using Digital Earth Australia Landsat annual geomedians (1988–2023) and block-level, industry-supplied planting year data, models were trained and evaluated at the pixel level under a strict Leave-One-Region-Out cross-validation (LOROCV) protocol; a secondary block-level random split (80/10/10) is reported only to illustrate the more optimistic setting, where shared regional conditions yield lower errors (0.6–0.7 years). Predictions reconstruct planting year retrospectively from the full historical record rather than providing real-time forecasts. The final model was then applied to all Australian Tree Crop Map (ATCM) macadamia orchard polygons to produce wall-to-wall planting year estimates. The approach enables fine-grained mapping of planting patterns to support yield forecasting, resource allocation, and industry planning. Results indicate that sequence-based deep models capture informative temporal dynamics beyond thresholding and conventional machine learning baselines, while remaining constrained by regional and temporal data sparsity. The framework is scalable and transferable, offering a pathway to planting year mapping for other perennial crops and to more resilient, data-driven agricultural decision-making.

Keywords: macadamia; planting year; deep learning; machine learning (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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