A Coupling Coordination Assessment of the Land–Water–Food Nexus in China

Cong Liu, Wenlai Jiang, Jianmei Wei, Hui Lu, Yang Liu and Qing Li ()
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Cong Liu: Institute of Agricultural Economics and Information, Jiangxi Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Nanchang 330200, China
Wenlai Jiang: Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Jianmei Wei: Institute of Agricultural Economics and Information, Jiangxi Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Nanchang 330200, China
Hui Lu: Institute of Agricultural Economics and Information, Jiangxi Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Nanchang 330200, China
Yang Liu: Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Qing Li: Institute of Agricultural Economics and Information, Jiangxi Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Nanchang 330200, China

Agriculture, 2025, vol. 15, issue 3, 1-24

Abstract: The synergistic relation among land resources, water resources, and food production plays a crucial role in sustainable agricultural development. This research constructs a coupling coordination assessment system of the land–water–food (LWF) nexus from 2005 to 2020 for 31 provinces (municipal cities, autonomous regions) in China, and explores the current development status of land, water, and food systems at multiple scales as well as the coupling coordination characteristics of the LWF nexus. The exploring spatial data analysis and spatial Tobit model are used to explain the spatial correlations and influencing factors of coupling coordination development on the LWF nexus. On that basis, the gray GM (1,1) model is used to forecast the future development of the LWF nexus in China. The results show that the comprehensive development indexes of the land system, water system, food system, and LWF nexus are on the rise, but the land system lags behind the water system and food system. The coupling coordination degree of the LWF nexus in different regions ranges from 0.538 to 0.754, and the coupling coordination development of the LWF nexus in China has reached the preliminary coupled coordination type, with an evolutionary process similar to that of its comprehensive development level. Further empirical research shows that there is a significant positive spatial correlation between coupling coordination development levels for the LWF nexus in China. The level of urbanization and agricultural industry agglomeration have negative effects, while economic development, ecological environment, and scientific and technological progress have positive effects. The prediction results indicate that the coupling coordination degree of the LWF nexus in China will show a stable upward trend from 2024 to 2025, and most provinces will reach the intermediate coupled coordination type in 2025. This study can inform decision-making for policy-makers and practitioners and enrich the knowledge hierarchy of the LWF nexus’ sustainable development on the national and regional scales.

Keywords: land–water–food nexus; coupling coordination development; influencing factors; future trend; China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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