Analysis of the Distribution Pattern of Asparagus in China Under Climate Change Based on a Parameter-Optimized MaxEnt Model

Qiliang Yang, Chunwei Ji, Na Li (), Haixia Lin, Mengchun Li, Haojie Li, Saiji Heng and Jiaping Liang ()
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Qiliang Yang: Faculty of Modern Agricultural Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650500, China
Chunwei Ji: Faculty of Modern Agricultural Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650500, China
Na Li: Faculty of Modern Agricultural Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650500, China
Haixia Lin: College of Water Conservancy and Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832003, China
Mengchun Li: Faculty of Modern Agricultural Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650500, China
Haojie Li: Faculty of Modern Agricultural Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650500, China
Saiji Heng: Faculty of Modern Agricultural Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650500, China
Jiaping Liang: Faculty of Modern Agricultural Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650500, China

Agriculture, 2025, vol. 15, issue 3, 1-21

Abstract: Asparagus ( Asparagus officinalis L.) has high health and nutritional values, but the lack of scientific and rational cultivation planning has resulted in a decline in asparagus quality and yield. Important soil, climatic, anthropogenic, and topographic environmental factors influencing the distribution of asparagus cultivation were chosen for this study. The Kuenm package in the R language (v4.2.1) was employed to optimize the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). Pearson’s correlation analysis, optimized MaxEnt, and geographic information spatial technology were then utilized to identify the main environmental factors that influence suitable habitats for asparagus in China. Potential distribution patterns, migration, and changes in trends concerning the suitability of asparagus in China under various historical and future climate scenarios were modeled and projected. Human activities and climate factors were found to be the primary environmental factors that influence the suitability distribution of asparagus cultivation in China, followed by soil and topographic factors. Historical suitable habitats covered 345.6 × 10 5 km 2 , accounting for 36% of China. These habitats are projected to expand considerably under future climatic conditions. This research offers a basis for the rational planning and sustainable development of asparagus cultivation.

Keywords: asparagus; climate change; human activities; model parameter optimization; habitat suitability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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