Assessing the Potential Distribution of Lonicera japonica in China Under Climate Change: A Biomod2 Ensemble Model-Based Study

Yaxuan Pan, Yijie Guan, Shan Lv, Xiaoyu Huang, Yijun Lin, Chaoyang Wei and Danping Xu ()
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Yaxuan Pan: College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China
Yijie Guan: College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China
Shan Lv: College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China
Xiaoyu Huang: College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China
Yijun Lin: College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China
Chaoyang Wei: College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China
Danping Xu: College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China

Agriculture, 2025, vol. 15, issue 4, 1-16

Abstract: Lonicera japonica , an importante rsource plant, possesses significant medicinal, economic, and ecological value. To understand its response to climate change and to optimize its conservation and utilization, this study employed the Biomod2 ensemble model to predict its potential distribution under future climate scenarios and identified key environmental factors influencing its distribution. The results showed that under current climatic conditions, the potential distribution of honeysuckle is primarily concentrated in low-altitude regions of central and eastern China and the Sichuan Basin. In future scenarios, the overall distribution pattern changes less, and the area of highly suitable habitats slightly decreases by 0.80%. Distribution analysis indicated a trend of northward migration towards higher latitudes. Temperature-related factors, including temperature seasonality, the minimum temperature of the coldest month, the mean temperature of the coldest quarter, and the annual mean temperature, were identified as dominant factors affecting its distribution. The Biomod2 ensemble model significantly improved the precision and accuracy of suitability predictions compared to single models, providing a scientific basis for predicting the future geographic distribution of honeysuckle and for establishing and utilizing its cultivation regions in China.

Keywords: Lonicera japonica; biomod2; climate change; species distribution; migration prediction; temperature (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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