Food System Scenarios in Uncertain Futures: A Case Study on Long-Term Local Food System Planning in Revelstoke, Canada

Robert Newell (), Colin Dring, Leslie King and Melissa Hemphill
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Robert Newell: School of Environment and Sustainability, Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC V9B 5Y2, Canada
Colin Dring: School of Environment and Sustainability, Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC V9B 5Y2, Canada
Leslie King: School of Environment and Sustainability, Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC V9B 5Y2, Canada
Melissa Hemphill: Revelstoke Local Food Initiative Society, Revelstoke, BC V0E 2S0, Canada

Agriculture, 2025, vol. 15, issue 6, 1-21

Abstract: Scenario planning is a potentially effective method for supporting long-term planning for sustainable and resilient food systems; however, scenario exercises are often limited by too much focus on a single preferred future, not accounting for uncertainty in global trajectories and future conditions. This study engaged local food system actors in Revelstoke (Canada) in a workshop that explored a qualitative, scenario-based approach to long-term food systems planning in the face of uncertain futures. The study involved applying different global narratives to identify future local scenario alternatives that respond to the socioeconomic, environmental, and political pressures in these narratives. This study identifies two trajectories and sets of possible future conditions (i.e., Scenario 1 and Scenario 2) that differ from one another in the following areas: (1) health and wellbeing, (2) connectivity and scale, (3) human–environment interactions, and (4) economies and the nature of work. Additionally, the strengths and weaknesses of the qualitative scenario method developed and used in this study were identified, including considerations related to the application of the method, participant selection, the nature of the data, and the assessment (or lack thereof) of the likelihoods of future events. The insights from such a scenario-planning approach can be used to stimulate thinking about what actions and interventions are useful for making progress toward local wellbeing, sustainability, and resilience in the face of global challenges and exogenous shocks.

Keywords: local food systems; scenarios; integrated food system planning; climate change; food security (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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