Does Online Public Opinion Regarding Swine Epidemic Diseases Influence Fluctuations in Pork Prices?—An Analysis Based on TVP-VAR and LDA Models

Fei Li, Huishang Li (), Xin Dai (), Hongjie Ren and Huaiyang Li
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Fei Li: Institute of Agricultural Information, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Big Data in Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100081, China
Huishang Li: Institute of Agricultural Information, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Big Data in Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100081, China
Xin Dai: Institute of Agricultural Information, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Big Data in Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100081, China
Hongjie Ren: Institute of Agricultural Information, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Big Data in Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100081, China
Huaiyang Li: Institute of Agricultural Information, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Big Data in Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100081, China

Agriculture, 2025, vol. 15, issue 7, 1-23

Abstract: In modern society with a highly developed Internet, online public opinions on swine epidemic diseases have become one of the important influencing factors for the fluctuation of pork prices. In this paper, the Baidu AI large model, Time-Varying Parameter-Stochastic Volatility-Vector Auto Regression (TVP-VAR) and Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) approaches are employed to investigate the dynamic impact of online public opinion regarding live swine epidemic diseases on fluctuations in pork price. The results show that: (1) Online public attention and negative sentiment exert significant time-varying impacts on pork price fluctuations, with these impacts being most pronounced in the short term and gradually diminishing over the medium and long term. (2) During the outbreaks of swine epidemic diseases, the impulse impact of online public attention and negative sentiment on pork price fluctuations exhibits distinct stage-specific characteristics. Initially, the impact is negative and subsequently turns positive before eventually waning. (3) The online discourse surrounding swine epidemic diseases can be categorized into four topics including disease transmission, vaccine technology, industry development, and disease prevention and control. Online public attention towards these four topics associated with negative sentiments generally contributes to variations in pork prices. Based on findings, several policy recommendations are proposed, including the timely release of swine epidemic disease information, the establishment and enhancement of the online public opinion monitoring and early warning system, as well as adherence to routine prevention and control of pig epidemic diseases.

Keywords: swine epidemic diseases; online public opinion; pork price fluctuation; TVP-VAR model; LDA model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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