Analyzing the Risk of Short-Term Losses in Free-Range Egg Production Using Commercial Data

Yusuf Adewale Adejola (), Terence Zimazile Sibanda, Isabelle Ruhnke, Johan Boshoff, Saluna Pokhrel and Mitchell Welch ()
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Yusuf Adewale Adejola: School of Environmental and Rural Science, University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2351, Australia
Terence Zimazile Sibanda: School of Science & Technology, University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2351, Australia
Isabelle Ruhnke: School of Environmental and Rural Science, University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2351, Australia
Johan Boshoff: Computational Analytics Software Informatics, University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2351, Australia
Saluna Pokhrel: School of Environmental and Rural Science, University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2351, Australia
Mitchell Welch: School of Science & Technology, University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2351, Australia

Agriculture, 2025, vol. 15, issue 7, 1-20

Abstract: Free-range egg production plays a key role in the global food system, and current market trends suggest that consumer demand for free-range eggs will continue to rise. Free-range egg production is susceptible to a wide range of factors, including climatic conditions, management practices, and disease presence. These factors can cause variability in the laying rate of a flock over time, leading to fluctuations in egg production. The main purpose of this study was to investigate the risk of short-term free-range egg production losses using data derived from a combination of sensing technologies and management activities. Production and environmental data were collected from a commercial farm comprising seven flocks of laying hens. The variables studied included laying rate, feed intake, water intake, solar radiation, humidity, precipitation, and indoor/outdoor temperature. These were processed into a set of aggregate features calculated across a 14-day moving window. Generalized estimating equations were used to analyze the association between the derived production and environmental features and the probability of a short-term drop in egg production, expressed through deviations in the laying rate on the day immediately following the data window. Odds ratios were used to express the relative risk of a production drop by comparing the features for window periods where production drops occur to the window periods where production drops did not occur. The results demonstrated that a range of data features based on the laying rate, feed intake, water intake, and indoor/outdoor temperatures all had significant associations with the odds of a production drop. Key findings from the study show that an increase in feed intake and laying rate measured across the 14-day data window were correlated with a lower risk of a sudden drop in egg production. Conversely, a low mean indoor temperature ( x < 16.1 °C group), measured through environmental sensing data, was correlated with a higher risk of a sudden drop in egg production. This study quantifies the link between data features derived from production and environmental monitoring and egg production issues, thereby providing useful insights on the most important data items captured through day-to-day monitoring, which can be used for proactive management. Further research should be carried out to investigate how technologies such as machine learning and analytics platforms can be applied for the task of forecasting production interruptions using the data features explored in this study.

Keywords: commercial data; weather data; risk modeling; laying rate; poultry; laying hen; sensing technology (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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