The Effect of Climate Change on Important Climate Variables in Taiwan and Its Potential Impact on Crop Production

Shih-Lun Fang, Bing-Yun Tsai, Chun-Yi Wu, Sheng-Chih Chang, Yi-Lung Chang and Bo-Jein Kuo ()
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Shih-Lun Fang: Department of Agronomy, National Chung Hsing University, Taichung 40227, Taiwan
Bing-Yun Tsai: Taiwan Seed Improvement and Propagation Station, Taichung 426015, Taiwan
Chun-Yi Wu: Department of Soil and Water Conservation, National Chung Hsing University, Taichung 40227, Taiwan
Sheng-Chih Chang: Taiwan Seed Improvement and Propagation Station, Taichung 426015, Taiwan
Yi-Lung Chang: Taiwan Seed Improvement and Propagation Station, Taichung 426015, Taiwan
Bo-Jein Kuo: Department of Agronomy, National Chung Hsing University, Taichung 40227, Taiwan

Agriculture, 2025, vol. 15, issue 7, 1-22

Abstract: Alterations in reference evapotranspiration (ET 0 ) and precipitation (PP) resulting from global warming substantially affect water resources and agriculture. This study analyzed trends in ET 0 , PP, and key climate variables—including air temperature (T), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), wind speed, and solar radiation (R s )—across Taiwan from 1995 to 2022. Trends were assessed using the modified Mann–Kendall test and the multivariate Man–Kendall test at both station-wise and multi-station scales. Results indicated that ET 0 was primarily influenced by R s , followed by T, wind speed, and VPD. Station-wise analysis revealed increasing trends in annual and seasonal T, R s , and ET 0 , while over 50% of wind speed series showed significant declines. Multi-station analysis confirmed an overall rise in ET 0 . In eastern Taiwan, rising T and declining VPD and wind speed may increase the risk of pest and disease outbreaks. The arid index exhibited a general downward trend, particularly in summer, with 75% of the stations in eastern Taiwan exhibiting significant declines, suggesting a shift toward drier conditions. These findings imply that fewer crop options may be suitable for cultivation in eastern Taiwan due to water resource constraints. Additionally, seasonal and annual PP showed slight decreases, with a more uneven distribution observed in central Taiwan. Therefore, improving hydraulic facilities and irrigation systems will become important. Furthermore, comparisons between the multivariate Mann–Kendall test and the traditional univariate approach revealed some different results, indicating the need for further research to identify a more reliable approach.

Keywords: climate change; trend analysis; reference evapotranspiration; climate variables; multivariate Mann–Kendall test (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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