The Effects of Multi-Scenario Land Use Change on the Water Conservation in the Agro-Pastoral Ecotone of Northern China: A Case Study of Bashang Region, Zhangjiakou City

Ruiyang Zhao, Haiming Kan, Hengkang Xu, Chao Chen, Guofang Zhang, Zhuo Pang () and Weiwei Zhang ()
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Ruiyang Zhao: Institute of Grassland, Flowers and Ecology, Beijing Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, Beijing 100097, China
Haiming Kan: Institute of Grassland, Flowers and Ecology, Beijing Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, Beijing 100097, China
Hengkang Xu: Institute of Grassland, Flowers and Ecology, Beijing Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, Beijing 100097, China
Chao Chen: Institute of Grassland, Flowers and Ecology, Beijing Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, Beijing 100097, China
Guofang Zhang: Institute of Grassland, Flowers and Ecology, Beijing Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, Beijing 100097, China
Zhuo Pang: Institute of Grassland, Flowers and Ecology, Beijing Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, Beijing 100097, China
Weiwei Zhang: Institute of Grassland, Flowers and Ecology, Beijing Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, Beijing 100097, China

Agriculture, 2025, vol. 15, issue 9, 1-29

Abstract: Water resource management is crucial for sustainable agricultural and ecological development, particularly in regions with complex land-use patterns and sensitive eco-systems. The Bashang region of Zhangjiakou city, located in the agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China, is an ecologically fragile area that is currently undergoing significant land use and climate changes. Despite the importance of understanding the interplay between land use, climate change, and water conservation, few studies have comprehensively evaluated their combined effects on regional water resources. This study addresses this gap by investigating the spatiotemporal changes in the water yield (WY) and water conservation capacity (WCC) of the Bashang region under different land use and climate scenarios for the year 2035. This research employs the FLUS model to predict the future land use and the InVEST model to estimate the WY and WCC under a natural development scenario (NDS), an agricultural production scenario (APS), an ecological protection scenario (EPS), and a land planning scenario (LPS). The results reveal that the WCC is primarily influenced by precipitation, land use, and the topography. This study finds that scenarios which focus on ecological protection and land use optimization, such as the EPS and LPS, significantly enhance the water conservation capacity of the study region Notably, the LPS scenario, which limits urban expansion and increases the amount of ecological land, provides the best balance between the water yield and conservation. The findings highlight the need for integrated approaches to land use and water resource management, particularly in agro-pastoral transitional zones. The unique contribution of this research lies in its comprehensive modeling approach, which combines land use, climate data, and water resource analysis, and which provides valuable insights for sustainable land and water management strategies.

Keywords: water conservation capacity (WCC); land-use change scenarios; water yield (WY); sustainable agricultural development; irrigated land (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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