Optimal Water Allocation Considering Water Diversion Projects in an Agricultural Irrigation District

Lian Sun, Suyan Dai, Liuyan Tian, Zichen Ni, Siyuan Lu and Youru Yao ()
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Lian Sun: Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Regional Response in the Yangtze–Huaihe River Basin, School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, China
Suyan Dai: Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Regional Response in the Yangtze–Huaihe River Basin, School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, China
Liuyan Tian: Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Regional Response in the Yangtze–Huaihe River Basin, School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, China
Zichen Ni: Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Regional Response in the Yangtze–Huaihe River Basin, School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, China
Siyuan Lu: Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Regional Response in the Yangtze–Huaihe River Basin, School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, China
Youru Yao: Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Regional Response in the Yangtze–Huaihe River Basin, School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, China

Agriculture, 2025, vol. 15, issue 9, 1-18

Abstract: Optimal water resource allocation in agricultural irrigation districts constitutes a core strategy for achieving coordinated regional water–food–ecosystem development. However, current studies rarely integrate inter-basin water diversion projects into the allocation, and the prolonged operation of diversion systems fails to adequately consider their ecological impacts in the irrigation districts. This study incorporates inter-basin water diversion into supply–demand dynamics and considers its influence on groundwater table changes in terrestrial ecological targets. Inexact two-stage stochastic programming (ITSP) was applied for optimal water allocation to address uncertainties from fluctuations in future water availability and interval ambiguity in socioeconomic information. Taking the densely populated agricultural irrigation district of Huaibei as a case study, we established a multi-stakeholder allocation model, considering the Yangtze-to-Huai water diversion project, to maximize comprehensive benefits under multiple scenarios of water availability for the years of 2030 and 2040. The results demonstrate that the district will face escalating water scarcity risks, with demand–supply gaps widening when available water resources decrease. The water redistribution in the second stage reduces scarcity-induced losses, achieving maximum comprehensive benefits. The water diversion project enhances supply capacity and boosts economic gains. The project can also decrease the fluctuation range of the total benefits by 5 × 10 6 CNY (2030) and 3.4 × 10 7 CNY (2040), compared with the scenario without the project. From 2030 to 2040, limited water resources will progressively shift toward sectors with higher economic output per unit water, squeezing agricultural allocations. Therefore, for irrigation districts in developing countries, maintaining a minimum guaranteed rate of agricultural water proves critical to safeguarding food security.

Keywords: irrigation district; agriculture; water resources; optimal allocation; two-stage programming; ecological target; groundwater table; North China Plain (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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