Projecting Future Change in Growing Degree Days for Winter Wheat

Natalie Ruiz Castillo and Carlos F. Gaitán Ospina
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Natalie Ruiz Castillo: National Weather Center Research Experiences for Undergraduates Program, Norman, OK 73072, USA
Carlos F. Gaitán Ospina: College of Atmospheric and Geographic Sciences, University of Oklahoma, 120 David L. Boren Boulevard, Suite 3630, Norman, OK 73072, USA

Agriculture, 2016, vol. 6, issue 3, 1-16

Abstract: Southwest Oklahoma is one of the most productive regions in the Great Plains (USA) where winter wheat is produced. To assess the effect of climate change on the growing degree days (GDD) available for winter wheat production, we selected from the CMIP5 archive, two of the best performing Global Climate Models (GCMs) for the region (MIROC5 and CCSM4) to project the future change in GDD under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 and 4.5 future trajectories for greenhouse gas concentrations. Two quantile mapping methods were applied to both GCMs to obtain local scale projections. The local scale outputs were applied to a GDD formula to show the GDD changes between the historical period (1961–2004) and the future period (2006–2098) in terms of mean differences. The results show that at the end of the 2098 growing season, the increase in GDD is expected to be between 440 °C and 1300 °C, for RCP 4.5, and between 700 °C and 1350 °C for RCP 8.5. This increase in GDD might cause a decrease in the number of days required to reach crop maturity, as all the GCM/statistical post-processing combinations showed a decreasing trend of those timings during the 21st century. Furthermore, we conclude, that when looking at the influence of the selected GCMs and the quantile mapping methods on the GDD calculation, the GCMs differences originated from the significant spatial and temporal variations of GDD over the region and not the statistical methods tested.

Keywords: winter wheat; Southwest Oklahoma; statistical post-processing; growing degree days; Red River Basin; climate projections (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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