Forecasting Facing Economic Shifts, Climate Change and Evolving Pandemics

Jennifer Castle (), Jurgen Doornik and David Hendry

Econometrics, 2021, vol. 10, issue 1, 1-0

Abstract: By its emissions of greenhouse gases, economic activity is the source of climate change which affects pandemics that in turn can impact badly on economies. Across the three highly interacting disciplines in our title, time-series observations are measured at vastly different data frequencies: very low frequency at 1000-year intervals for paleoclimate, through annual, monthly to intra-daily for current climate; weekly and daily for pandemic data; annual, quarterly and monthly for economic data, and seconds or nano-seconds in finance. Nevertheless, there are important commonalities to economic, climate and pandemic time series. First, time series in all three disciplines are subject to non-stationarities from evolving stochastic trends and sudden distributional shifts, as well as data revisions and changes to data measurement systems. Next, all three have imperfect and incomplete knowledge of their data generating processes from changing human behaviour, so must search for reasonable empirical modeling approximations. Finally, all three need forecasts of likely future outcomes to plan and adapt as events unfold, albeit again over very different horizons. We consider how these features shape the formulation and selection of forecasting models to tackle their common data features yet distinct problems.

Keywords: forecasting; model selection; climate econometrics; climate change; COVID-19; structural change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B23 C C00 C01 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C8 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1146/10/1/2/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1146/10/1/2/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jecnmx:v:10:y:2021:i:1:p:2-:d:708476

Access Statistics for this article

Econometrics is currently edited by Ms. Djurdjija Mastalo

More articles in Econometrics from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().