Details about Jennifer L. Castle
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Short-id: pca273
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Working Papers
2022
- Forecasting: theory and practice
Papers, arXiv.org View citations (70)
See also Journal Article Forecasting: theory and practice, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2022) View citations (30) (2022)
- Structural relationships between cryptocurrency prices and monetary policy indicators
Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics
- The Historical Role of Energy in UK Inflation and Productivity and Implications for Price Inflation in 2022
Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting 
Also in Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics (2022) View citations (1)
2021
- A machine learning dynamic switching approach to forecasting when there are structural breaks
Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics
- Can the UK achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050?
Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics View citations (1)
See also Journal Article CAN THE UK ACHIEVE NET ZERO GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY 2050?, National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research (2023) (2023)
- Smooth Robust Multi-Horizon Forecasts
Economics Papers, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford View citations (2)
Also in Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting (2020) View citations (2)
See also Chapter Smooth Robust Multi-Horizon Forecasts, Advances in Econometrics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited (2022) View citations (1) (2022)
2020
- Identifying the Causal Role of CO2 during the Ice Ages
Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics View citations (3)
- Modelling Non-stationary 'Big Data'
Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics 
See also Journal Article Modelling non-stationary ‘Big Data’, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2021) View citations (2) (2021)
- Robust Discovery of Regression Models
Economics Papers, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford View citations (3)
See also Journal Article Robust Discovery of Regression Models, Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier (2023) View citations (3) (2023)
- Short-term forecasting of the Coronavirus Pandemic - 2020-04-27
Economics Papers, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford View citations (7)
2019
- Modelling and forecasting the dollar-pound exchange rate in the presence of structural breaks
Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics
- Some forecasting principles from the M4 competition
Economics Papers, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford View citations (3)
2018
- Selecting a Model for Forecasting
Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics View citations (2)
See also Journal Article Selecting a Model for Forecasting, Econometrics, MDPI (2021) View citations (1) (2021)
2016
- An Overview of Forecasting Facing Breaks
Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics View citations (22)
See also Journal Article An Overview of Forecasting Facing Breaks, Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer (2016) View citations (22) (2016)
- Policy Analysis, Forediction, and Forecast Failure
Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics View citations (1)
2014
- Robust Approaches to Forecasting
Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics View citations (1)
See also Journal Article Robust approaches to forecasting, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2015) View citations (37) (2015)
2013
- Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview
Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics View citations (7)
- Semi-automatic Non-linear Model selection
Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics View citations (1)
2012
- Forecasting by factors, by variables, or both?
Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics View citations (4)
- Mis-specification Testing: Non-Invariance of Expectations Models of Inflation
Working Paper series, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis View citations (1)
See also Journal Article Misspecification Testing: Non-Invariance of Expectations Models of Inflation, Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals (2014) View citations (12) (2014)
- Model Selection in Equations with Many 'Small' Effects
Working Paper series, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis View citations (2)
Also in Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics (2011) View citations (2)
See also Journal Article Model Selection in Equations with Many ‘Small’ Effects, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford (2013) View citations (4) (2013)
2011
- A Tale of 3 Cities: Model Selection in Over-, Exact, and Under-specified Equations
Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics
- Forecasting breaks and forecasting during breaks
Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics View citations (31)
- On Not Evaluating Economic Models by Forecast Outcomes
Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics View citations (4)
- Using Model Selection Algorthims to Obtain Reliable Coefficient Estimates
Working Papers in Economics, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance View citations (2)
See also Journal Article USING MODEL SELECTION ALGORITHMS TO OBTAIN RELIABLE COEFFICIENT ESTIMATES, Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell (2013) View citations (8) (2013)
2010
- A Low-Dimension Portmanteau Test for Non-linearity
Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics View citations (37)
See also Journal Article A low-dimension portmanteau test for non-linearity, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (2010) View citations (39) (2010)
- Automatic Selection for Non-linear Models
Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics View citations (12)
- Evaluating Automatic Model Selection
Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics View citations (5)
See also Journal Article Evaluating Automatic Model Selection, Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter (2011) View citations (79) (2011)
- Model Selection in Under-specified Equations Facing Breaks
Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics View citations (2)
See also Journal Article Model selection in under-specified equations facing breaks, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (2014) View citations (15) (2014)
- Testing the Invariance of Expectations Models of Inflation
Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics View citations (15)
Also in Memorandum, Oslo University, Department of Economics (2010) View citations (13)
2009
- How To Pick The Best Regression Equation: A Review And Comparison Of Model Selection Algorithms
Working Papers in Economics, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance View citations (10)
2008
- Forecasting with Equilibrium-correction Models during Structural Breaks
Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics View citations (5)
See also Journal Article Forecasting with equilibrium-correction models during structural breaks, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (2010) View citations (38) (2010)
- Model Selection when there are Multiple Breaks
Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics View citations (20)
See also Journal Article Model selection when there are multiple breaks, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (2012) View citations (76) (2012)
- The Long-Run Determinants of UK Wages, 1860-2004
Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics View citations (1)
See also Journal Article The long-run determinants of UK wages, 1860-2004, Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier (2009) View citations (25) (2009)
2007
- A Low-Dimension Collinearity-Robust Test for Non-linearity
Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics View citations (1)
- Forecasting UK Inflation: the Roles of Structural Breaks and Time Disaggregation
Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics View citations (8)
Journal Articles
2024
- Five sensitive intervention points to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, illustrated by the UK
Renewable Energy, 2024, 226, (C) View citations (1)
- Forecasting the UK top 1% income share in a shifting world
Economica, 2024, 91, (363), 1047-1074 View citations (1)
- Improving models and forecasts after equilibrium-mean shifts
International Journal of Forecasting, 2024, 40, (3), 1085-1100
- Stability between cryptocurrency prices and the term structure
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2024, 165, (C) View citations (2)
- What a Puzzle! Unravelling Why UK Phillips Curves were Unstable
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2024, 86, (4), 743-760
2023
- CAN THE UK ACHIEVE NET ZERO GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY 2050?
National Institute Economic Review, 2023, 266, 11-21 
See also Working Paper Can the UK achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050?, Economics Series Working Papers (2021) View citations (1) (2021)
- Robust Discovery of Regression Models
Econometrics and Statistics, 2023, 26, (C), 31-51 View citations (3)
See also Working Paper Robust Discovery of Regression Models, Economics Papers (2020) View citations (3) (2020)
- The historical role of energy in UK inflation and productivity with implications for price inflation
Energy Economics, 2023, 126, (C) View citations (2)
2022
- Forecasting: theory and practice
International Journal of Forecasting, 2022, 38, (3), 705-871 View citations (30)
See also Working Paper Forecasting: theory and practice, Papers (2022) View citations (70) (2022)
- Machine Learning Dynamic Switching Approach to Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks
Journal of Business Cycle Research, 2022, 18, (2), 129-157 View citations (1)
- Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic
International Journal of Forecasting, 2022, 38, (2), 453-466 View citations (8)
2021
- A dynamic econometric analysis of the dollar-pound exchange rate in an era of structural breaks and policy regime shifts
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2021, 128, (C) View citations (3)
- Forecasting Facing Economic Shifts, Climate Change and Evolving Pandemics
Econometrics, 2021, 10, (1), 1-21
- Forecasting Principles from Experience with Forecasting Competitions
Forecasting, 2021, 3, (1), 1-28 View citations (9)
- Modeling and forecasting the COVID‐19 pandemic time‐series data
Social Science Quarterly, 2021, 102, (5), 2070-2087 View citations (1)
- Modelling non-stationary ‘Big Data’
International Journal of Forecasting, 2021, 37, (4), 1556-1575 View citations (2)
See also Working Paper Modelling Non-stationary 'Big Data', Economics Series Working Papers (2020) (2020)
- Selecting a Model for Forecasting
Econometrics, 2021, 9, (3), 1-35 View citations (1)
See also Working Paper Selecting a Model for Forecasting, Economics Series Working Papers (2018) View citations (2) (2018)
- THE VALUE OF ROBUST STATISTICAL FORECASTS IN THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
National Institute Economic Review, 2021, 256, 19-43 View citations (6)
2020
- Card forecasts for M4
International Journal of Forecasting, 2020, 36, (1), 129-134 View citations (17)
- Climate Econometrics: An Overview
Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, 2020, 10, (3-4), 145-322 View citations (18)
2017
- Evaluating Forecasts, Narratives and Policy Using a Test of Invariance
Econometrics, 2017, 5, (3), 1-27 View citations (15)
2016
- A half-century diversion of monetary policy? An empirical horse-race to identify the UK variable most likely to deliver the desired nominal GDP growth rate
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2016, 43, (C), 158-176 View citations (8)
- An Overview of Forecasting Facing Breaks
Journal of Business Cycle Research, 2016, 12, (1), 3-23 View citations (22)
See also Working Paper An Overview of Forecasting Facing Breaks, Economics Series Working Papers (2016) View citations (22) (2016)
- Stigum, Bernt P.: Econometrics in a formal science of economics: theory and the measurement of economic relations
Journal of Economics, 2016, 117, (1), 89-91 
Also in Journal of Economics, 2016, 117, (1), 89-91 (2016)
2015
- Detecting Location Shifts during Model Selection by Step-Indicator Saturation
Econometrics, 2015, 3, (2), 1-25 View citations (96)
- Robust approaches to forecasting
International Journal of Forecasting, 2015, 31, (1), 99-112 View citations (37)
See also Working Paper Robust Approaches to Forecasting, Economics Series Working Papers (2014) View citations (1) (2014)
2014
- Misspecification Testing: Non-Invariance of Expectations Models of Inflation
Econometric Reviews, 2014, 33, (5-6), 553-574 View citations (12)
See also Working Paper Mis-specification Testing: Non-Invariance of Expectations Models of Inflation, Working Paper series (2012) View citations (1) (2012)
- Model selection in under-specified equations facing breaks
Journal of Econometrics, 2014, 178, (P2), 286-293 View citations (15)
See also Working Paper Model Selection in Under-specified Equations Facing Breaks, Economics Series Working Papers (2010) View citations (2) (2010)
2013
- Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?
Journal of Econometrics, 2013, 177, (2), 305-319 View citations (38)
- Model Selection in Equations with Many ‘Small’ Effects
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2013, 75, (1), 6-22 View citations (4)
See also Working Paper Model Selection in Equations with Many 'Small' Effects, Working Paper series (2012) View citations (2) (2012)
- USING MODEL SELECTION ALGORITHMS TO OBTAIN RELIABLE COEFFICIENT ESTIMATES
Journal of Economic Surveys, 2013, 27, (2), 269-296 View citations (8)
See also Working Paper Using Model Selection Algorthims to Obtain Reliable Coefficient Estimates, Working Papers in Economics (2011) View citations (2) (2011)
2012
- Model selection when there are multiple breaks
Journal of Econometrics, 2012, 169, (2), 239-246 View citations (76)
See also Working Paper Model Selection when there are Multiple Breaks, Economics Series Working Papers (2008) View citations (20) (2008)
2011
- Evaluating Automatic Model Selection
Journal of Time Series Econometrics, 2011, 3, (1), 33 View citations (79)
See also Working Paper Evaluating Automatic Model Selection, Economics Series Working Papers (2010) View citations (5) (2010)
2010
- A low-dimension portmanteau test for non-linearity
Journal of Econometrics, 2010, 158, (2), 231-245 View citations (39)
See also Working Paper A Low-Dimension Portmanteau Test for Non-linearity, Economics Series Working Papers (2010) View citations (37) (2010)
- Forecasting with equilibrium-correction models during structural breaks
Journal of Econometrics, 2010, 158, (1), 25-36 View citations (38)
See also Working Paper Forecasting with Equilibrium-correction Models during Structural Breaks, Economics Series Working Papers (2008) View citations (5) (2008)
- Nowcasting from disaggregates in the face of location shifts
Journal of Forecasting, 2010, 29, (1-2), 200-214 View citations (25)
2009
- NOWCASTING IS NOT JUST CONTEMPORANEOUS FORECASTING
National Institute Economic Review, 2009, 210, (1), 71-89 View citations (37)
Also in National Institute Economic Review, 2009, 210, 71-89 (2009) View citations (34)
- The long-run determinants of UK wages, 1860-2004
Journal of Macroeconomics, 2009, 31, (1), 5-28 View citations (25)
See also Working Paper The Long-Run Determinants of UK Wages, 1860-2004, Economics Series Working Papers (2008) View citations (1) (2008)
2005
- Evaluating PcGets and RETINA as Automatic Model Selection Algorithms*
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2005, 67, (s1), 837-880 View citations (16)
Edited books
2015
- The Methodology and Practice of Econometrics: A Festschrift in Honour of David F. Hendry
OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press
2009
- The Methodology and Practice of Econometrics: A Festschrift in Honour of David F. Hendry
OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press View citations (102)
Chapters
2024
- Econometric forecasting of climate change
Chapter 14 in Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Macroeconomic Forecasting, 2024, pp 361-395
2022
- Smooth Robust Multi-Horizon Forecasts
A chapter in Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling, 2022, vol. 43A, pp 143-165 View citations (1)
See also Working Paper Smooth Robust Multi-Horizon Forecasts, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford (2021) View citations (2) (2021)
2008
- Chapter 2 Forecasting UK Inflation: The Roles of Structural Breaks and Time Disaggregation
A chapter in Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty, 2008, pp 41-92
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