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An Overview of Forecasting Facing Breaks

Jennifer Castle (), David Hendry () and Michael Clements

No 779, Economics Series Working Papers from University of Oxford, Department of Economics

Abstract: Abstract: Economic forecasting may go badly awry when there are structural breaks, such that the relationships between variables that held in the past are a poor basis for making predictions about the future. We review a body of research that seeks to provide viable strategies for economic forecasting when past relationships can no longer be relied upon.

Keywords: Business Cycles; Forecasting; Breaks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C51 C22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm and nep-for
Date: 2016-02-02
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