The Potential Impacts of Urban and Transit Planning Scenarios for 2031 on Car Use and Active Transportation in a Metropolitan Area

Patrick Morency, Céline Plante, Anne-Sophie Dubé, Sophie Goudreau, Catherine Morency, Pierre-Léo Bourbonnais, Naveen Eluru, Louis-François Tétreault, Marianne Hatzopoulou, Naveen Chandra Iraganaboina, Tanmoy Bhowmik and Audrey Smargiassi
Additional contact information
Patrick Morency: Direction de Santé Publique du Centre Intégré Universitaire de Santé et de Services Sociaux du Centre-Sud-de-l’Île-de-Montréal, Montreal, QC H2L 1M3, Canada
Céline Plante: Direction de Santé Publique du Centre Intégré Universitaire de Santé et de Services Sociaux du Centre-Sud-de-l’Île-de-Montréal, Montreal, QC H2L 1M3, Canada
Anne-Sophie Dubé: Direction de Santé Publique du Centre Intégré Universitaire de Santé et de Services Sociaux du Centre-Sud-de-l’Île-de-Montréal, Montreal, QC H2L 1M3, Canada
Sophie Goudreau: Direction de Santé Publique du Centre Intégré Universitaire de Santé et de Services Sociaux du Centre-Sud-de-l’Île-de-Montréal, Montreal, QC H2L 1M3, Canada
Catherine Morency: Department of Civil, Geological and Mining Engineering, Polytechnique Montreal, Montreal, QC H3T 1J4, Canada
Pierre-Léo Bourbonnais: Department of Civil, Geological and Mining Engineering, Polytechnique Montreal, Montreal, QC H3T 1J4, Canada
Louis-François Tétreault: Direction de Santé Publique du Centre Intégré Universitaire de Santé et de Services Sociaux du Centre-Sud-de-l’Île-de-Montréal, Montreal, QC H2L 1M3, Canada
Marianne Hatzopoulou: Department of Civil & Mineral Engineering, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 1A4, Canada
Naveen Chandra Iraganaboina: Department of Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL 32816, USA
Tanmoy Bhowmik: Department of Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL 32816, USA
Audrey Smargiassi: Institut National de Santé Publique du Québec, Montreal, QC H2P 1E2, Canada

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 17, issue 14, 1-15

Abstract: Land use and transportation scenarios can help evaluate the potential impacts of urban compact or transit-oriented development (TOD). Future scenarios have been based on hypothetical developments or strategic planning but both have rarely been compared. We developed scenarios for an entire metropolitan area (Montreal, Canada) based on current strategic planning documents and contrasted their potential impacts on car use and active transportation with those of hypothetical scenarios. We collected and analyzed available urban planning documents and obtained key stakeholders’ appreciation of transportation projects on their likelihood of implementation. We allocated 2006–2031 population growth according to recent trends (Business As Usual, BAU) or alternative scenarios (current planning; all in TOD areas; all in central zone). A large-scale and representative Origin-Destination Household Travel Survey was used to measure travel behavior. To estimate distances travelled by mode, in 2031, we used a mode choice model and a simpler method based on the 2008 modal share across population strata. Compared to the BAU, the scenario that allocated all the new population in already dense areas and that also included numerous public transit projects (unlikely to be implemented in 2031), was associated with greatest impacts. Nonetheless such major changes had relatively minor impacts, inducing at most a 15% reduction in distances travel by car and a 28% increase in distances walked, compared to a BAU. Strategies that directly target the reduction of car use, not considered in the scenarios assessed, may be necessary to induce substantial changes in a metropolitan area.

Keywords: urban growth scenario; sprawl; transit-oriented development; modal share; public transit; car use; active transportation; walking (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/14/5061/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/14/5061/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:14:p:5061-:d:384397

Access Statistics for this article

IJERPH is currently edited by Ms. Jenna Liu

More articles in IJERPH from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().