Energy Logistic Regression and Survival Model: Case Study of Russian Exports

Karel Malec, Socrates Kraido Majune, Elena Kuzmenko, Joseph Phiri, Rahab Liz Masese Nyamoita, Seth Nana Kwame Appiah-Kubi, Mansoor Maitah (), Lubos Smutka, Zdeňka Gebeltová, Karel Tomšík, Sylvie Kobzev Kotásková and Jiří Marušiak
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Karel Malec: Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Czech University of Life Sciences, 165 00 Prague, Czech Republic
Socrates Kraido Majune: School of Economics, University of Nairobi, Nairobi 30197-00100, Kenya
Elena Kuzmenko: Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Czech University of Life Sciences, 165 00 Prague, Czech Republic
Joseph Phiri: Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Czech University of Life Sciences, 165 00 Prague, Czech Republic
Rahab Liz Masese Nyamoita: School of Economics, University of Nairobi, Nairobi 30197-00100, Kenya
Mansoor Maitah: Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Czech University of Life Sciences, 165 00 Prague, Czech Republic
Zdeňka Gebeltová: Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Czech University of Life Sciences, 165 00 Prague, Czech Republic
Karel Tomšík: Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Czech University of Life Sciences, 165 00 Prague, Czech Republic
Sylvie Kobzev Kotásková: Department of Humanities, Faculty of Economics and Management, Czech University of Life Sciences, 165 00 Prague, Czech Republic
Jiří Marušiak: Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Czech University of Life Sciences, 165 00 Prague, Czech Republic

IJERPH, 2023, vol. 20, issue 1, 1-14

Abstract: The importance of environmental sustainability is becoming more and more obvious, so the rationale behind long-term usage of solely non-renewable energy sources appeared questionable. This study aims to identify, using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and logistic regressions, the main determinants that affect the duration of Russian non-renewable energy exports to different regions of the world. Data were retrieved from the databanks of the World Development Indicators (WDI), World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS), and the French Centre for Prospective studies and International Information (CEPII). The obtained results point to the fact that approximately 52% of energy products survive beyond their first year of trading, nearly 38% survive beyond the second year, and almost 18% survive to the twelfth year. The survival of Russian non-renewable energy exports differs depending on the region, and the affecting factors are of different importance. The duration of Russian non-renewable energy exports is significantly linked to Russia’s GDP, Total export, and Initial export values. A decline in Russia’s GDP by 1% is associated with an increasing probability of a spell ending by 2.9% on average, in turn growing Total export and Initial export values positively linked with the duration of non-renewable energy exports from Russia. These findings may have practical relevance for strategic actions aimed at approaching both energy security and environmental sustainability.

Keywords: non-renewable energy exports; discrete-time model; survival analysis; Russia; environmental sustainability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:20:y:2023:i:1:p:885-:d:1024140

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