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A Poisson Autoregressive Model to Understand COVID-19 Contagion Dynamics

Arianna Agosto and Paolo Giudici ()

Risks, 2020, vol. 8, issue 3, 1-8

Abstract: We present a statistical model which can be employed to understand the contagion dynamics of the COVID-19, which can heavily impact health, economics and finance. The model is a Poisson autoregression of the daily new observed cases, and can reveal whether contagion has a trend, and where is each country on that trend. Model results are exemplified from some observed series.

Keywords: poisson autoregressive models; contagion; predictive monitoring (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C G0 G1 G2 G3 K2 M2 M4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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