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A Poisson autoregressive model to understand COVID-19 contagion dynamics

Arianna Agosto and Paolo Giudici ()

No 185, DEM Working Papers Series from University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management

Abstract: We present a statistical model which can be employed to understand the contagion dynamics of the COVID-19. The model is a Poisson autoregression, and can reveal whether contagion has a trend, and where is each country on that trend. Model results are presented from the observed series of China, Iran, Italy and South Korea.

Pages: 4
Date: 2020-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cna and nep-ets
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Journal Article: A Poisson Autoregressive Model to Understand COVID-19 Contagion Dynamics (2020) Downloads
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