Random Network Transmission and Countermeasures in Containing Global Spread of COVID-19-Alike Pandemic: A Hybrid Modelling Approach

Yimin Zhou, Jun Li, Lingjian Ye, Zuguo Chen, Qingsong Luo, Xiangdong Wu and Haiyang Ni

Complexity, 2020, vol. 2020, 1-12

Abstract:

Since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) at the beginning of December 2019, there have been more than 28.69 million cumulative confirmed cases worldwide as of 12 th September 2020, affecting over 200 countries and regions with more than 920,463 deaths. The COVID-19 pandemic has been sweeping worldwide with unexpected rapidity. In this paper, a hybrid modelling strategy based on tessellation structure- (TS-) configured SEIR model is adopted to estimate the scale of the pandemic spread. Building on the data pertaining to the global pandemic transmission over the last six months around the world, key impact factors in the transmission and control procedure have been analysed, including isolation rate, number of the infected cases before taking prevention measures, degree of contact scope, and medical level, so as to capture the fundamental factor influencing the pandemic. The quantitative evaluation allowed us to illustrate the magnitude of risks of pandemic and to recommend appropriate national health policy of prevention measures for effectively controlling both intra- and interregional pandemic spread. Our modelling results clearly indicate that the early-stage preventive measures are the most effective action to be taken to contain the pandemic spread of the highly contagious nature of the COVID-19.

Date: 2020
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/8503/2020/6703703.pdf (application/pdf)
http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/8503/2020/6703703.xml (text/xml)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hin:complx:6703703

DOI: 10.1155/2020/6703703

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Complexity from Hindawi
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Mohamed Abdelhakeem ().