An Improved Grey Model with Time Power and Its Application

Jianming Jiang, Caixia Liu, Yuanguo Yao, Yumu Lu, Wanli Xie, Chong Liu and Qingdu Li

Complexity, 2022, vol. 2022, 1-10

Abstract: The grey system model with time power, which is often called the GM(1,1, tα), appeals considerable interest of research due to its effectiveness in time series forecasting. Aimed to improve further the GM(1,1, tα) model, this paper introduces a new whitening equation with variable coefficient into the original whitening equation which extends applicable scope; as a result, an improved grey model with time power, namely, OGM(1,1, tα), is proposed. Firstly, the time response function of the novel model and the restored values of original series are deduced through grey modelling techniques. Secondly, the variable coefficient in the whitening equation and the time power are determined by particle swarm optimization algorithm. Two empirical examples are then used to verify the validity of the novel model. Finally, the novel model is applied to predict the oil consumption of China from 2004 to 2018. Results show the novel model outperforms other commonly-used competitive models, which can well serve a benchmark model for scholars and decision-makers.

Date: 2022
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2022/6910865.pdf (application/pdf)
http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2022/6910865.xml (application/xml)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hin:complx:6910865

DOI: 10.1155/2022/6910865

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Complexity from Hindawi
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Mohamed Abdelhakeem (mohamed.abdelhakeem@hindawi.com).